The Prime Minister at a cabinet meeting on Tuesday, hours before debate on the Rwanda Bill begins. Photo: Simon Dawson/No. 10 Downing Street
MPs will spend Tuesday and Wednesday debating Rishi Sunak's bill to accept the government's plan to send some migrants to Rwanda.
However, a group of rebels around Suella Braverman, the former Minister of the Interior, rejected amendments drafted to tighten it. Some have suggested they will vote against the entire bill at third reading on Wednesday evening.
Here The Telegraph looks at what's likely to happen over the two days of debate.
Amendments passed
Rebels introduced a number of amendments to the Rwanda bill.
These include further restrictions on the rights of migrants to challenge their deportation and blocking orders by Strasbourg judges to stop flights to Rwanda.
But the chances of the amendments passing the House of Commons are slim because they would require the support of opposition parties, which they won't.
However, if that happened, Mr Sunak would have to withdraw the entire bill. which would be another devastating blow to his waning authority.
Deputies rebel against the amendments – and vote against the bill in the third reading
This is the worst-case scenario for Mr Sunak as it would mean he would have to go back to square one. More than 60 Tories have backed the rebel amendments so far, but they need Labor and the Liberals to defeat the government. Democrats who will support them.
Opposition parties will not support the amendments, but they will vote against the entire bill at third reading.
The real question facing the Tory rebels is whether they will whether they vote against the third reading.
>It only takes 29 Conservatives for the bill to fail, throwing Sunak's immigration policy into chaos.
MPs rebel against amendments but fail to vote against bill at third reading
This is the scenario Downing Street is betting on.
Number 10 has always maintained that, despite all the noise they make, the rebels do not have enough numbers to reverse the government's policy towards Rwanda.
They believe that only five to ten party members are ready to do anything. and vote against the bill.
They pointed out that when there was a threat of rebellion to vote against the bill at the second reading, the rebels got cold feet and decided to abstain.
Winning the vote on Wednesday night would give the Prime Minister the minister is given the go-ahead to try out his plan for Rwanda.
If it works, it could strengthen his leadership ahead of the elections.
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