About a third of Europe's population died from the bubonic plague during the Black Death. Photo: Bettman/Getty Images
The world's population is expected to experience this for the first time since the Black Death due to a sharp drop in fertility, a Lancet study has found.
A decline in the number of children born to women has begun to slow growth world population, which stands at just over eight billion, could mean it begins to decline within decades.
This would be the first time the number of people on the planet has declined since the bubonic plague pandemic «Black death» killed 50 million people in the mid-1300s, including up to a third of Europe's population.
To date, this is the only time that the number of people on Earth has declined: historians estimate that the global population fell from about 400 million to 350 million.
Women are required to have an average of 2.1 children per person to maintain population growth, known as the «total fertility rate», and as of 2021, it stood at 2.23 worldwide.
But experts say it is on a steady downward trend: It has fallen from 4.84 in 1950, and researchers predict it will fall to 1.83 in 2050 and 1.59 by 2100.
This means that in 2050, 155 of 204 countries will have fertility levels below those needed to maintain their population.
By 2100, that will be 198 countries, or 97 percent of the world's population, and in Africa by Sub-Saharan Africa will account for more than every second child born.
In 13 countries, including South Korea, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Bhutan, women will have fewer than one child each on average.
The UK, like other high-income countries, has lower fertility rates than Great Britain. the average is just 1.49 in 2021.
It fell from 2.19 in 1950 and will continue to decline to 1.38 and 1.30 in the next 25 and 75 years, the researchers say.
This would mean that the current population of about 67 million would become increasingly unbalanced with respect to older generations and then fall as the oldest people die, unless migration occurs.
The decline in Britain's birth rate is already showing in real time, with the latest data showing that fewer pupils in primary and secondary schools are applying for places that were once coveted .
And women are increasingly turning to egg freezing, which has come into the spotlight recently as health leaders call on fertility clinics to make their chances of success clearer.
Last week, Miriam Cates, Conservative MP party, said women should not wait so long to have children and that they are being “exploited” by “false promises” that egg freezing will work.
Experts said the impact of population decline on society would be «huge» as there would be more older people than younger people, increasing pressure on health services and the workforce.
By 2100, only 26 countries will have levels The birth rate will exceed the population. is dying out, and «much of the world is going into natural population decline.»
There may also be an increase in immigration from countries still experiencing «baby booms» to fill labor shortages that will need to be managed, researchers add.
Dr Natalia Bhattacharjee, co-author of the study and lead researcher at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, US, said that falling fertility levels would “completely change the global economy and international balance of power and will require a reorganization of society.”
“Global recognition of the challenges associated with migration and global aid networks will be increasingly important when there is intense competition for migrants to support economic growth and as the sub-baby boom in Africa and the Sahara continues apace.”
Professor Stein Emil Walseth, senior author at IHME, said the world is «experiencing stunning social change» in the 21st century.
He said: «In many ways, the falling birth rate is a success story, reflecting not only better and more readily available contraception, but also that many women are choosing to postpone or have fewer children, as well as more opportunities for education and employment.»
The researchers used key indicators including women's education, contraceptive use, infant mortality and urbanization to determine changes in fertility rates, but these projections can be changed by local politics and world events such as pandemics and wars.
Professor Melinda Mills, Director of Population Sciences at the University of Oxford, said: “A declining and aging population requires preparedness and reorganization of society.”
“From worsening food security and migration patterns to the very infrastructures of countries,” she said. “The composition of the population influences infrastructure such as schools, housing, transportation, housing, health care and pensions, as well as cultural changes and changes in voting.”
The Lancet study was conducted by IHME and funded by Bill & ; Melinda Gates Foundation.
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