Lewis Hamilton has failed to finish ahead of Mercedes teammate George Russell in any race this season. Photo: Getty Images/Kym Illman
After Friday's practice at Suzuka, Lewis Hamilton said it was the “best” experience he's had in his current Mercedes car. Even after he qualified seventh, half a second behind pole position Max Verstappen, he was positive. The W15 was the “most comfortable” of the entire season. However, after the race there were few signs of positivity. “Overall the car feels pretty bad,” he said after a struggling ninth finish at Suzuka.
The stark contrast between Friday and Sunday is familiar to Mercedes, especially to Hamilton. Their time in the new era of ground effects was characterized by both a lack of progress and several false dawns. However, in recent months, Mercedes has been open about its problems, even if they are far from solving them.
Hamilton has just 10 points after four rounds and has gone six races without finishing in the top six for the first time in his Formula One career. This is not only Hamilton's worst start to an F1 season in his 17-year career, but also the most confusing of the 2024 campaign. First, there is the unpredictability of what he expects from his machine, and then what he gets from one session to the next. Secondly, at the end of the season he leaves Mercedes and moves to Ferrari after 12 years of work. Thirdly, his form is going through particularly difficult times.
Whether Hamilton is personally embarrassed or just upset, it's definitely confusing for anyone watching. In Japan he surpassed George Russell for at least the first time this year, but was unable to maintain that advantage at the end of the checkered flag. It was strange to hear him embarrassedly almost ask to let his teammate pass in Suzuka. You don't often hear that from even those Formula 1 drivers who are lucky enough to take their place, let alone drivers in Hamilton's class.
“Should I let George to?” 📻
Teamwork at Mercedes: George and Lewis swap positions 🔀 pic.twitter.com/Qkr7IsHxcC
— Sky Sports F1 (@SkySportsF1) April 7, 2024
Russell beat Hamilton in their first season together, but the seven-time champion has bounced back with a strong showing in 2023 compared to his teammate's rocky run. It was one way traffic in 2024 with Hamilton failing to finish ahead of Russell and trailing 24 points to 10.
There is time to improve his form but what will be the peak of Hamilton's ambitions even if he returns to his best form? He probably won't have a race-winning car in 2024. Even in the winless years of 2022 and 2023 (the only ones in Formula 1), he scored nine and six podiums. It looks like this is still a long way off.
The W15 is currently the fifth fastest car on a single lap and the fourth fastest car over the race distance, at best. Of its rivals (not counting Red Bull), McLaren and Ferrari are clearly ahead. Indeed, the performance difference between the dominant Red Bull and Ferrari is not much greater than between Ferrari and Mercedes.
However, the group of four teams behind Red Bull are fairly close together and McLaren have made a huge leap midway through 2023, rising from sixth place to become Red Bull's closest points rival. There aren't many hints that Mercedes is capable of such a stellar breakthrough. As Gary Anderson has written repeatedly in his Telegraph Sport columns, it's not just about understanding the problems when your car is slow, but also understanding what makes your car fast when it's performing well. Mercedes seems to be stuck in a cycle that can't be broken. At least they're no longer hiding behind the delusion that they have a fast car and just need to unleash its inherent pace.
Mercedes continues to confuse as Ferrari improves
All this means that Hamilton's swan song with the team that helped him win six world championships and 82 wins looks like the nadir of his Silver Arrows. His decision to join the Scuderia in 2025 seems reasonable. Hamilton wants and deserves a car that can validate his talents and capture the elusive record of an eighth world championship. If he gets it, it won't be at Mercedes. Ferrari have made progress from 2023 to 2024 – both on track and in service – and on their current trajectory there is a chance they will end 2024 or start 2025 with a car that can at least compete for wins regularly – if not championships.
Then the big question is: at what point will Hamilton leave Mercedes? When will his attention turn to Maranello from Brackley? This does not call into question his professionalism and desire to help the team and achieve better results while he is there.
Hamilton's efforts at Mercedes will be 100 percent, but is it worth it? expending as much mental – and probably emotional – energy as possible to get a car good enough to make it onto the podium in the final third of the season? Or help build a faster car for Russell and his own replacement in 2025? There is clearly a limit here, and as the Ferrari improves and impresses, while the Mercedes baffles and baffles, it gets closer and faster.
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