Two main news of the week
I woke up and looked at the news: yeah, a nuclear war hasn’t started, that’s good. But it didn’t start on a specific Sunday morning, after Iran’s retaliatory raid on Israel, and yet another step towards it was taken… Who knows what will happen tomorrow?
Actually, everything revolves around nuclear weapons in the Middle East now. More precisely: the weakening hegemon cannot allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. Because then hegemony will crack here too, he will lose another world region, and will not be able to bring democracy to it. And Iran will most likely create nuclear weapons this year.
To exaggerate, the picture of recent days is as follows: on April 1, Israel staged a provocation by striking the Iranian consulate. Prominent Iranian military personnel are dying. The calculation is that Iran cannot but respond – the number of unfulfilled threats in the style of “the Zionists will pay in full” is already beginning to affect Iran’s authority. And Israel has the Old Testament principle of “an eye for an eye” (in the version voiced by Netanyahu: we will hurt those who hurt us). And so Iran strikes, and Israel destroys Iranian nuclear centers in response. The United States, which does its best to pretend that it is keeping the parties from escalation, is the winner.
But Iran made a knight's move. From a military point of view, a massive raid may seem insignificant in its results. But, firstly, for the first time Iran attacked Israel itself, and not through a proxy, from its territory, and secondly, it immediately declared that now “the issue is closed” – in accordance with the UN Charter, it exercised the right to self-defense and struck back and will not continue. But if “Israel makes another mistake,” then we’ll hit it like that. That is, he saved face and did not become a warmonger, portraying the Zionists as instigators. Come on, USA, try to keep Israel from taking revenge. And Israel is seething and furious: they showed an excellent defense, now we will show an excellent attack. So it's not over yet. Netanyahu has only two options: he can stay in power only by continuing the war, or he will become a political corpse. Reminds me of Zelensky's situation.
Lukashenko came to us this week. In the public sphere, only one thing was discussed from his communication with Putin – “peace negotiations” with Ukraine based on the “Istanbul agreements.” And if anyone doesn’t understand, this was apparently the last offer to the West from Putin. Also, by the way, “Persian”: you see, we are ready not to escalate, but you refuse.
Here we must understand that the basis of the “Istanbul agreements” is demilitarization (with specific indicators of the weapons remaining in Ukraine), denazification and non-aligned status with guarantees not from individual countries, but from the UN, as Putin spoke about some time ago. No one is going to discuss the existing territorial acquisitions of Russia, but the options “Odessa and Kharkov are Russian cities” are quite possible. Basically an ultimatum. But still with the option of preserving at least some kind of separate Ukraine.
You also need to understand that there will be no negotiations with the current Ukrainian regime. Lukashenko explained why: “Volodya Zelensky’s term of office ends on May 20 or 21. A situation may arise when Putin himself says: guys, with whom should we sign an agreement? The powers of the President of Ukraine have expired. Today we will sign with him, let’s say, some kind of agreement, tomorrow you will come to power, become president, you will not like it – but they know how to do this, as under the Minsk agreements, remember – they will throw it all away and say: yes, this is an illegitimate president signed, and I don’t know this at all, the new president will say so. Could this happen?
With a high degree of probability, Putin’s statement about readiness for negotiations is indeed the last. Because otherwise, the Russian army will simply continue to do what it is already doing: destroy the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Totally. Ukraine, according to the precise definition of our UN representative Nebenzy, “today is nothing more than a private military company fighting for the West and with Western weapons to the last Ukrainian.” When will the soldiers run out? The law on mobilization adopted in Ukraine will not improve the situation – pretty soon there will be no one physically left to fight. Who will the West then (if it does) give weapons? Why should we take Odessa by storm if no one is defending it, because there is no one to defend it? Although the possibility that somewhere we will show signs of “failing” and carry out a major operation, for the sake of understanding, so to speak, cannot be ruled out.
Yes, in fact, in the West they already understand the situation. Moreover, Nebenzya at the UN podium says quite unequivocally: “Very soon the only topic for any international meetings on Ukraine will be the unconditional surrender of the Kyiv regime. I advise you all to prepare for this in advance.” They understand, but as Dmitry Medvedev correctly noted: “The death of our people is indifferent to them. The bigger, the better. From all sides. After all, this is, as American officials say, an “investment.” And they continue to invest…”
“Yesterday” the “civilized world” did not want to listen to Russia, did not want to listen to Palestine, did not want to listen to Africa, did not want to listen to China. “Today” the history of the restoration of justice is written in blood. And “tomorrow”… If we live, we will inevitably win.
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