The ruble began to weaken: the dollar on the stock exchange exceeded 94 rubles for the first time since October 2023. Analysts cite a reduction in foreign exchange interventions by the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance as one of the reasons. Should we expect further weakening of the ruble? Analysts interviewed by Kommersant FM admit that in the near future the rate may drop to 94.5 rubles. for $1.
Chief Researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Igor Nikolaev, admits that this is a consequence of a violation of the foreign trade balance: “The main fundamental factor that works to weaken the ruble is what happens to the foreign trade balance. The Federal Customs Service has published statistics according to which our exports are decreasing by more than 7%, and most importantly, imports as well. Of course, the Central Bank has certain levers, and it uses them, but, unfortunately, they cannot reverse this trend.
If the situation with foreign trade levels out, suppose exports begin to grow, it will be possible to somehow change the situation, of course, this will contribute to the strengthening of the ruble. But the recent decision of the London Exchange that Russian non-ferrous metals will not be traded, unfortunately, means that exports are likely to decline.”
However, some Kommersant FM interlocutors believe that the devaluation will not last long. Among the factors that contribute to the strengthening of the ruble, they name the presidential decree regarding exporters on the sale of foreign currency earnings. In addition, the American dollar has risen in price not only relative to the ruble, explains Valery Weisberg, director of the analytical department of the investment company Region:
“I would probably consider the current situation rather as speculative, after publication on Last week, inflation statistics in the United States globally showed a sharp increase in the dollar exchange rate against all currencies.
Currently, oil prices are significantly higher than they were in February. At the moment, the volumes of foreign exchange earnings that were received at low prices may have actually reached the market, and the supply of foreign currency has decreased slightly because of this. Another couple of months will pass, revenue will be received from oil sold at higher prices, and, in principle, this will have a strengthening effect on the market for the ruble.”
At the same time, the Central Bank officially predicted that in 2024, the dollar will cost slightly more than 91 rubles. Earlier, Elvira Nabiullina stated that the main goal of the regulator is to reduce inflation and achieve its level near 4%, and the exchange rate is secondary.
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