Protests continue in Israel for the release of the remaining hostages. Photo: JACK GES/AFP
We've been here before, but Israel woke up on Sunday with new hope that a ceasefire could be brokered by Hamas and the remaining 139 hostages would return.
Negotiations have stalled stalemate for months over Hamas's demand that any deal lead to an end to the conflict and Israel's refusal to support anything short of “total victory.”
But late Saturday it emerged that a new Israel's proposal, brokered by Egypt, includes a willingness to discuss “the restoration of sustainable calm” in the Gaza Strip after the initial release of approximately 20-30 hostages.
This formulation reflects the Islamic concept of hudnah – lasting peace or tranquility – and may be acceptable to both sides since it does not require a declaration of final peace. The last Israeli-Lebanese war in 2006 ended on similarly controversial terms.
Israel's proposal is supposed to remove other sticking points: it would reportedly allow Gazans to return to their homes in the north and withdraw IDF troops from the central Gaza corridor.
It was previously reported that the number of hostages that Israel is asking Hamas to release during the initial phase of the ceasefire has also decreased.
However, it is the proposal to extend the peace that is likely to make or break the new proposal. Hamas leadership is reviewing this issue and is expected to respond in the next few days.
IDF troops continue to seek the elimination of the terrorists in Khan Yunis. Photo: IDF
“The proposal… includes a willingness to discuss establishing a sustainable ceasefire as part of the implementation of the second phase of the agreement, which will take place after the release of the hostages on humanitarian grounds,” news site Axios reported on Sunday, citing Israeli officials.
Hamas “must understand that if the first stage is realized, it will be possible to move on to the next stages and reach the end of the war,” they added.
The reported shift in Israel's position angered sources close to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Saturday night, who, in a play on words, said Israel's military objectives remained unchanged – something the new wording allows.
However. However, the new agreement, if accepted by Hamas, could provoke a political crisis in Israel. The far-right parties backed by Netanyahu's well-balanced coalition have long said they will withdraw from the war if he stops the war before Hamas is completely defeated.
However, these parties represent only a few seats and the opposition Yesh Atid party has said it will intervene and support the government if it can reach an agreement that includes the return of the missing 139 hostages.
The new proposal comes at the end of a week in which Israel has been discussing preparations for a military offensive on Rafah in southern Gaza, where the last four Hamas battalions are believed to be entrenched. The threat of an Israeli invasion in Rafah remains. Analysts say Israel could pressure Hamas to meaningfully join the new agreement.
Israel is also feeling the heat from the US and other allies, which have been ratcheting up pressure since they intervened decisively to protect Israel from an Iranian rocket attack two weeks ago.
Relatives of the hostages are protesting against the government of Benjamin Netanyahu and demanding an end to Israeli attacks on the Gaza Strip. Photo: Mostafa Alharuf/Anadolu
In addition to demonstrating Israel's dependence on Western military aid, talk of sanctions and action by the International Criminal Court in The Hague is growing louder. Just this week the UK sought and received permission from Israel to inspect makeshift prisons holding Hamas suspects from Gaza.
Carrots are also offered to the Israeli leadership and defense establishment – along with President Biden. He is expected to speak by phone with Netanyahu on Sunday evening before his Foreign Minister Antony Blinken arrives in Israel on Tuesday.
Some say the US is essentially offering Netanyahu the chance to become the face of a new alliance against Iran – what he has been talking about for a long time.
“Historic decision point – every decision the Israeli government makes will have far-reaching consequences for its strategic situation for many years to come,” tweeted Shai Har-Zvi, a senior fellow at the Institute for Policy and Strategy and a former official at the Ministry of Strategic Affairs as news of the new proposal emerged.
He added that the deal could pave the way for advancing a broader U.S. peace plan for the region, including rebuilding Gaza and forming a “coalition against Iran.”
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“On the other hand, another failure could lead to widespread escalation in many arenas,” he said.
While there is cause for hope, the chances of success remain slim given recent results. The political gamble may prove too difficult for Netanyahu, or Hamas may reject the proposal, saying it does not go far enough.
“Every time we get closer to an agreement… there is sabotage… on both sides.” side,” a senior Qatari official told Haaretz on Saturday.
One can only hope that this time will be different.
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