The ruble weakened slightly during the holiday trading. The euro broke the 100 ruble mark. for the first time since mid-April. The national currency exchange rate is declining after strengthening for several days. And this happens against the backdrop of low activity on the stock exchange.
Speculators now play a key role in it, noted Valery Weisberg, director of the analytical department of the investment company Region: “On holidays, most trading participants are probably on vacation, and the supply of currency has decreased. And they are trying to win back small sales transactions.
A really noticeable strengthening of the ruble occurred at the end of last week, apparently, those who remained in the market, first of all, speculators, considered that the ruble was very expensive and began to sell it, not meeting adequate offers.
Therefore, we see that the ruble exchange rate is weakening. But the volumes are very small, so when the period associated with the holidays ends, most likely, the exchange rate will begin to strengthen again, because the foreign exchange supply will simply increase.”
At the same time, the exchange rate is stable against the dollar. The American currency is trading around 93 rubles. It's already the second day. There are also fundamental factors that influence the ruble – this is the end of the tax period, which leads to the already traditional fluctuation. The exchange rate of the national currency will be supported by the extension of the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings for exporters, senior analyst at the Center for Economic Forecasting of Gazprombank Daria Menshikh is confident: “For the last few years, we have existed in an environment where the main factor influencing the exchange rate is export foreign currency earnings.
The ruble exchange rate is now determined by fundamental factors: the export and import of goods. In this regard, there are no reasons for the ruble to weaken at the moment, because there is a price correction with exports, but in principle everything is fine, and imports are stagnating due to the high key rate. Every month we have periods of high volatility at the end of the month, they are associated with the tax period.
Fundamentally, we expect a weakening to the level of 95 rubles. per dollar by the end of the year, without sharp fluctuations. This, taking into account the mandatory sale, in our opinion, the decision is justified in the current conditions and will support the ruble until the end of the year.”
The Ministry of Economic Development predicts that the average dollar exchange rate this year will be 94.7 rub., and next year it will exceed 101 rubles.
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