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GENEVA, June 5There is an 80% chance that global temperatures will temporarily exceed pre-industrial levels by 1.5 degrees over the next five years, says the report. published report on the website of the World Meteorological Organization (IOM) at the UN.
“There is an 80% chance that average annual global temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in at least one of the next five years. This is a serious warning that we are moving ever closer to the targets set in the Paris Agreement «climate change, which refers to long-term temperature increases over decades, rather than one to five years,» the document says.
The organization projects that the average global surface temperature each year between 2024 and 2028 will be 1.1 to 1.9°C higher than between 1850 and 1900, and there is an 86% chance that at least one annual temperature record. Currently, 2023 is considered the warmest year on record.
The Paris Climate Agreement was adopted on December 12, 2015 following the 21st Conference of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Paris. The document was signed by 175 countries, including the USA, China and Russia.
Global temperatures could reach record highs in the next five years, according to the UN World Meteorological Organization. This will be facilitated by the anthropogenic factor, that is, greenhouse gases, and the natural factor — the change in the phases of ocean currents from La Niña to El Niño. This phenomenon will affect not only the average temperature on the planet, but also the precipitation pattern. The peculiarity of the change in phases of currents, which began in the summer of 2023, is that during La Niña, heat from the atmosphere intensively goes into the ocean, and during El Niño, the flow goes from the ocean to the atmosphere.
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