The Central Bank lowered the official dollar exchange rate by 4 rubles at once. The value of the American currency with settlements on June 20 is now slightly higher than 82.5 rubles. The euro is slightly higher than 89 rubles. At the same time, on the interbank market, which the regulator uses to form the official rate, the dollar is even lower – 81.2 rubles. Thus, the difference between the rates is almost 2%. The Russian currency is also strengthening against the yuan. This has been happening for five trading days. Now the Chinese currency is giving 11.5 rubles. It can still be bought on the Moscow Exchange.
What is the reason for the continued strengthening of the Russian currency? Yaroslav Kabakov, director of strategy for the Finam financial group, identifies several main reasons that are similar to the situation in 2022: “A fairly large volume of funds is being converted into rubles by many participants, taking into account the sanctions on the National Clearing Center and the Moscow Exchange. Accordingly, there is, of course, a certain overhang of the non-cash dollar. Plus, rumors about the possible fate of the yuan are now actively circulating in the market.
Considering the fairly large influx of American currency into the market, including the payment of taxes, we see a bright picture of the strengthening of the ruble. That is, this is, to some extent, a repetition of history against the backdrop of difficulties with paying for imports after the sanctions of 2022, when the exchange rate was about 50 rubles. more than per dollar.
Now approximately the same situation is happening, but probably on a smaller scale, and it is being intensified to a certain extent. Many are trying to reduce risks. If the Chinese currency moves to the interbank market, approximately the same thing awaits us – an increase in the spread between purchase and sale and bank pricing of the currency.”
At the same time, on the cash currency market, the average value of the dollar by the evening of June 19 was slightly more than 85.5 rubles. At the same time, the difference between buying and selling is approximately 7 rubles. The general volatility in the market is a consequence of adaptation to new sanctions restrictions, noted Digital Broker analyst Natalia Pyryeva. But as soon as this is completed, she says, the dollar will begin to move up:
“Now this trend has formed due to the lack of demand for any currency: dollars, euros and yuan, because there is a lack of understanding of how further payments will be made.
This, accordingly, provokes a surge in the strengthening of the ruble. But this has an emotional character of uncertainty, unknown. In the future, the direction of the ruble exchange rate in relation to the bi-currency basket will be determined by foreign trade indicators. So far, in general, we are in fairly favorable conditions. The latest balance of payments data for January-May continues to show a fairly solid current account surplus, so there is no reason to expect that the exchange rate will reverse sharply and the ruble will become 100 against the dollar. A more adequate price is still a return to the sideways range of 87-93-94.”
Against this background, the rate of the USDT stablecoin, which is tied to the value of the dollar, is also declining. Now you can buy it on the P2P market for about 89 rubles. The day before, at the official Central Bank exchange rate of 89 rubles. USDT per dollar was given at exchange offices for 92-94 rubles.
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