The Domklik analytical center in its regular research tells how the demand for preferential mortgages changed in the first half of 2024.
At the end of last year, large-scale restrictions were introduced into the conditions state programs to cool the preferential mortgage segment, the main of which was the reduction of the maximum loan amount to 6 million rubles. and increasing the down payment to 30% under the “State Support” program. In addition, according to the new conditions, a preferential loan could be obtained only once.
We saw the effect of restrictions already in the first quarter. If in the fourth quarter of last year the number of soft loans was about 70 thousand. per month, then in January the number of issues dropped to 21 thousand. It is worth noting that January traditionally demonstrates a low level of sales, but in February-March the market, as a rule, comes to life. However, in this case, there was no increase in demand: in February-March the number of distributions under preferential programs was even lower than in January (up to 20 thousand per month). The share of concessional loans in the total number of loans also decreased from a record 61% in December to ~40% in February-March.
Experts note that in the first quarter, the decrease in demand for the “State Support” program turned out to be comparable to the “Family Mortgage”: in both cases, the share of transactions under the programs decreased by 6–7 percentage points (relative to the fourth quarter of 2023), to ~ 19%. During this time, only Far Eastern and Arctic Mortgage demonstrated an increase in the percentage of issuances due to expansion into new territories at the end of last year.
Demand for preferential mortgages began to gain momentum only at the beginning of the second quarter: in April, the number of loans issued under preferential programs increased to 31 thousand. (+62% compared to March), and the share of preferential mortgages increased by 12 percentage points, to 53%. Analysts explained the increase in the growth rate of demand for preferential mortgage lending by the approaching completion of the “State Support” program and changes in the conditions for another key program — “Family Mortgage”. In addition, at the beginning of April, the issuance of IT mortgages was resumed. Domklik experts added that the influx of buyers was partly due to the abolition of requirements for subsidizing preferential mortgage programs for developers.
As the deadline for the completion of the mass preferential mortgage at 8% approaches and the terms of the Family Mortgage are updated » the high growth rate of demand for preferential mortgage lending continued: in May, the share of preferential mortgages in the total number of issues increased to a new record level of 63.2% (from April +10 percentage points), and the number of issues under preferential programs increased to 49 thousand pieces (+60% compared to April).
It is also worth noting that in the second quarter of this year, “Family Mortgage” turned out to be the most popular preferential program, overtaking the “State Support” program on the eve of its completion . Thus, the share of “Family Mortgage” accounted for about 31% of all transactions, while the share of “State Support” accounted for about 29%.
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