Pacification will not completely satisfy either side
All the movements that are happening on different, but one way or another connected with the Ukrainian conflict, movement tracks seem to be starting to take shape in a more or less understandable picture . Perhaps the final battle will begin quite soon, and then the reconciliation of Ukraine and Russia, which will not completely satisfy either side.
Talk about the need to start negotiations is already heard constantly. Orban sends letters “to all authorities” with a peace plan, Trump promises to “end the war” (and chooses Vence, who is actually an opponent of Ukraine, as his vice president), even Zelensky declares that Russia’s presence is necessary at the next “peace summit.”
But at the same time (and data about this is published by specialized TG channels that track, among other things, the flights of transport aircraft) there is a hasty and massive transfer of heavy weapons to Ukraine. F-16 deliveries are either already underway or expected any day now.
On the line of combat contact, the initiative belongs to Russia (which is reluctantly stated by both Western and Ukrainian militaries) — more and more settlements are being liberated, the army is improving the tactical and strategic position at the front. Ukraine's air defense is zeroed out, and Russian missile attacks are no longer parried; moreover, now they can be seen almost live — our drones “hang” over targets with impunity.
But at the same time, the Belgorod Region is turning into a «sanitary zone»: from July 23, entry into 14 populated areas will be restricted due to the tense operational situation, said the region's governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov. Checkpoints will be set up at the entrances, and public transport will be prohibited from entering these populated areas. To get there, you will need to submit an application, and only adult men in bulletproof vests and accompanied by military personnel will be allowed in.
The conclusions from all this are quite simple. The more Russia puts pressure on Ukraine, the louder the voices about negotiations sound. And there is no alternative. Negotiations will begin, and the time frame for the process depends on the US elections. However, no one will allow Kyiv to unconditionally agree to peace on Russia’s terms.
Kyiv is preparing the final counter-offensive. And with a high degree of probability, the Belgorod region may be under attack, since the Ukrainian Armed Forces will try to return the territories liberated by our army in the Kharkov region. And here everything will be thrown into the furnace of war: the recently recruited mobilized Ukrainians (their training no longer plays a role, mass participation is needed, and in Ukraine they report that they have recruited a lot of people), and the tanks that are now entering the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and, of course, F- 16.
In this counter-offensive, the existing potential of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be exhausted. If they manage to pass the Kharkov region, and even better, for Ukraine it is better, to enter the Belgorod region — Kyiv will receive a strong position in the negotiations. If it fails, Kyiv will present the public with a bitter reality that must be accepted. (By the way, public opinion there is being prepared for this, no longer silencing the “anti-war” speeches of local “celebrities”).
This seems to be the political calculation for a “bitter peace.” There is no need to explain why Gorky is for Kyiv. Why is it bitter for us? First, inevitable compromises will be taken seriously. Secondly, it is worth remembering not even a prediction, but a very recent forecast by Dmitry Medvedev: “This will not be the end of Russia’s military operation. Even after signing the papers and accepting defeat, the rest of the radicals, after a regrouping of forces, will sooner or later return to power, inspired by Russia’s Western enemies. And then the time will come to finally crush the reptile.”
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