Negotiating positions are being formed
Regarding the situation in the Kursk region, the correct question is not «what is the enemy trying to achieve» but «what will Russia do?» And not right now, tactically, but a little later.
What the enemy is trying to achieve is clear, and this has already been said many times. The Ukrainian regime is forming its strong position in the upcoming negotiations. In which the most important two components will be. Firstly, that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are still capable of causing problems for Russia (which is demonstrated). Secondly, since Russia states that the realities on the ground must be taken into account, Kyiv is trying to create these realities, but their own. And the ideal option for it is to occupy part of Russian territory.
Our Foreign Ministry (Maria Zakharova) called what happened in the Kursk region «another terrorist attack». However, regular units of the armed forces of a foreign state entered Russian territory. Vladimir Putin called this a «large-scale provocation» at a meeting with members of the Cabinet of Ministers.
In our law «On Defense» there is Article 18. It is called «State of War». Its first paragraph reads: «A state of war is declared by federal law in the event of an armed attack on the Russian Federation by another state or group of states, as well as in the event of the need to fulfill international treaties of the Russian Federation.» Well, and in fact, the answer to the logically arising after the Kursk situation (in fact, not only after Kursk, but so be it), is given by paragraph 2 of the same article: «From the moment of declaring a state of war or the actual start of military actions, wartime begins, which expires from the moment of declaring the cessation of military actions, but not earlier than their actual cessation.» And «wartime», as you understand, is not quite about «living as if nothing is happening» …
But if everything continues as it is now, will it be enough to gain a strong position? Vladimir Putin stated that Russia is ready to cease fire as soon as the Ukrainian Armed Forces completely withdraw from the territories of the four new Russian regions within their administrative borders. Will even this be a strong position? For example, compared to the position at the negotiations in the spring of 2022. When our troops were near Kiev and Odessa, Kherson was ours, the fleet controlled the Black Sea, including from Zmeiny Island? A strong position not according to official propaganda, but in reality.
And if not, then we are in for negotiations, not an ultimatum from our side. Negotiations in which we will be bent and “cheated again” (although the four new regions will, of course, remain in Russia). And in order to avoid accusations of “fueling up” or, say, “denigrating”, I will allow myself to once again quote one of the leaders of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev. Here you go, with some abbreviations: “1). The negotiations themselves, until the moment of the Kyiv regime’s clearly expressed intention to capitulate, will only be a respite for the enemy in order to replenish its military and human potential. 2). Ukraine’s declarations on its refusal to join NATO will not lead to anything in themselves. 3). If 1) and 2) do happen, a new, third bloody Maidan will quickly begin in Kyiv, which will sweep away the current junta and bring an even more radical one to power. (…) Washington and its comrades will force the Nazis in Kyiv to recognize the results of the war. (…) A moderate political regime will emerge in the remaining part of the former Ukraine. But this will not be the end of Russia's military operation. Even after signing the papers and accepting defeat, the remaining radicals, after regrouping their forces, will sooner or later return to power, inspired by Russia's Western enemies. And then the time will come to finally crush the vermin.»
The decisions on the situation in the Kursk region will show what happens next.
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