Crowds in Niger wave Russian flags and chant in support of the Wagner mercenary group. Credit: Sam Mednick/AP
For the fifth time since gaining independence from France in 1960, Niger's leadership was overthrown in a military coup.
Mohamed Bazum, one of the last Western allies in the region Sahel in North Africa, was detained by his own presidential guard on Wednesday night.
The next day, hundreds of people gathered in Niamey, the capital of Niger.
Bazum may have been driven out by local soldiers, but crowds waved Russian flags and chanted in support of the Wagner mercenary group.
Analysts warn that Russia is rapidly expanding its influence in the region in an alliance against the West.
Instability is growing in the Sahel region, and with it new threats to Europe's energy supply.
< p>Daniel Fuber, founder of the consulting firm Excalibur Insight, says this poses risks to Europe's energy security.
“I think it could lead to a new energy crisis if Russia does what it does in Africa.” does in Ukraine,” he says.
“If they can wage such a war in Europe, then why not in Africa, when no one is watching. The French are not interested.”
But they should be. Niger produces about 5% of the world's uranium, which is an important component of nuclear power, but all of it is exported to France, which gets 70% of its electricity from nuclear sources.
Saien Gohil, Risk Analyst at Fitch Solutions, says: “ Niger is more dependent on uranium exports to France than France is dependent on uranium imports from Niger.”
However, the coup highlights the wider problem with uranium not under sanctions. Almost two-thirds of France's uranium imports in 2022 came from countries currently in Russia's sphere of influence
Last year, 30% of France's uranium imports came directly from Russia. Another 12% and 9.6% came from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, respectively, the former Soviet republics.
“This is relatively worrisome since France relies on nuclear power,” says Gohil.
He notes that in the last three years alone, there have been seven coups in West and Central Africa.
>A jihadist insurgency is spreading from Mali. Niger has been a key Western ally in the region, and its role has become increasingly important since Mali and Burkina Faso expelled the French troops stationed there.
There is a clear pattern. Russia has already established clear influence in Mali and reportedly in Burkina Faso after similar coups. Gohil says: «The lesson is that this is the key risk that Niger will stop relying on France and the US and move towards Russia.»
Supporters of rebel soldiers hold signs in Niger that read «Long live Russian-Nigerian cooperation.» Photo: AP
France also exports nuclear energy to Germany. “Nuclear power in Europe has regional implications,” says Gohil. In general, the European Union receives a quarter of its electricity from nuclear power.
“If demand hadn’t been growing, this wouldn’t have been a problem, but it is,” says Philip Andrews-Speed, senior scientist. at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
Prices rose steadily and steeply. From January 2021 to January 2023, the price of uranium increased by 74%. In the first six months of this year, it grew by another 11 percent.
“The UK is talking about wanting new reactors. Poland and Romania are likely to go into nuclear power. Türkiye is building its first nuclear power plant. There is another one in Finland. There is a big argument for energy security and for green energy,” says Andrews-Speed. The energy crisis contributed to this.
The presence of Russia could also disrupt the operation of the Trans-Sahara gas pipeline, which is planned to be laid from Nigeria through the Niger to Europe as part of a strategy to diversify gas supplies to Europe. away from Russia.
After the completion of the pipeline, Europe will receive about 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year — enough to meet the gas needs of approximately 30 million European homes.
This is expected to replace a significant part of the 155 billion gas. cubic meters that Europe used to import from Russia.
“This could be the reason why Russia will immediately try to establish very close ties with the new military junta and possibly block this project,” says Gohil. However, Putin is unlikely to have the economic means to do so, he adds.
But Russia's presence in Niger itself could also support its military actions in Ukraine. “Their working methods are gold. Wagner isn't necessarily interested in uranium, but gold can have tangible value, and they can ship supplies back to Russia.
There have been seven coups in West and Central Africa in the past three years. Photo: Sam Mednick/AP
“This is what they do in other African countries,” says Gohil. Fresh gold reserves also stabilize the economy in Russia.
It is important to note that there is a huge threat of regional instability. Russia is steadily building a sphere of influence against the West, says Daniel Fouber.
“They are slowly expanding, and this is becoming extremely dangerous. Russia will be able to use its presence in Africa to put pressure on other important countries. They already have very good relations with Algeria, a large presence in Eastern Libya and strong relations with Egypt.
“We are gradually being cut off from the Global South.”
Gohil at Fitch Solutions adds: “Mali and Burkina Faso, after coups and close ties with Russia, effectively kicked France out and ordered the UN security mission to leave. Thus, Niger was one of the last countries still firmly aligned with the West in the region.”
The US also has a $100 million drone base in the country. “This is a key pivot in the fight against al-Qaeda and Islamic State-linked terrorist groups in the region,” says Gohil.
West African states are unlikely to fall into Russia’s sphere of influence, as their the economy is more developed. strong. The sphere of Russia rather extends to the east. “A potential target could be Chad,” says Gohil.
Russia’s encroachment is its own form of colonialism, taking over the power vacuum left by France.
“I think Macron is very weak ', says Fuber. The French president is fighting protests at home. “There is no real strategy to fight Russia, it is not enough.”
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