The air combat system of the future is likely to cost billions of euros. Photo: YOAN VALAT/AFP
Fighters are among the most expensive weapons a nation can build, costing in the tens of billions. Each new model costs more than the last.
No wonder European superpowers squabble over money when it comes to the latest jet project.
The development of the Système de Combat Aérien du Futur (SCAF) — or the Future Combat Aviation System in England — is increasingly opening up a rift between Paris and Berlin.
Germany and France, which together with Spain are developing SCAF, are increasingly at odds about how to finance the project, where it should be built and to whom to sell the aircraft.
“One or two of these problems in and of themselves are normal,” says Rim Momtaz, a research fellow in the European Foreign and Security Policy at the IISS think tank. “But all this combined only exacerbates the difficult moment and Franco-German relations.”
The SCAF project began in a 2001 attempt to find a successor to today's fighter technology, but it began in earnest in 2017. SCAF aims to have a working military aircraft by 2040.
Future planes will look more like a flying supercomputer than the flying shooters of yesteryear. In addition to munitions, they will capture images, radar data, and radio transmissions, interpreting them at thousands of miles per hour. As a result, development costs are high.
There is no set budget yet, but the cost is likely to be comparable to the £72 billion Anglo-Italia Tempest project, meaning it will be in the tens of billions of euros. The budget for the prototype alone is 3.2 billion euros. France, the only nuclear power in the EU, usually takes the lead in such military projects.
However, the war in Ukraine prompted Germany to reassess its long-standing pessimism. Berlin has pledged to increase defense spending to meet NATO's 2% GDP target.
This put the noses out of action. Berlin's decision to launch a new missile defense program last year took France by surprise and became «one of the main points of contention between Paris and Berlin since the start of the war in Ukraine,» according to Le Monde.
Now, Germany is reportedly hesitant about its plan for a legal commitment to meet NATO's military spending target, which, based on last year's economic performance, will be around 77 billion euros a year.
Instead, it may commit to an average of 2% over five years, which, according to Reuters, gives more room to maneuver but also increases the likelihood of cuts in arms spending in the near future.
But the biggest apple discord between Paris and Berlin — that's who to sell future fighters.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told reporters at a NATO summit last month that blocking exports of Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets to Saudi Arabia would not end «at any time.» coming soon».
Germany continues to oppose the sale of Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft to Saudi Arabia. Photo: Corporal Cathy Sharples, 614 Squadron RAF
The comments are «a very bad signal for the future export of the European SCAF program», lamented the financial newspaper La Tribune.
Saudi Arabia is one of the largest defense spending in the world, and France usually builds its defense industry on exports.
However, «Germany is very enthusiastic about human rights issues,» says Momtaz.
Francis Tusa, an independent defense expert, says: «I am a SCAF pessimist.»
According to him, the main theme is the rebalancing of military power in Europe, which France is struggling to cope with.< /p>
Another long-standing source of tension is France's insistence that its own European defense industry should be developed.
France is a country for which the export of large military systems is an important part of the economy, says Momtaz. «This is an important part of its diplomacy.»
Belgium is currently trying to join the SCAF project, but the head of the leading French contractor for this project, Dassault, publicly objects to Brussels' participation.
“I don’t understand why the Belgians should be given jobs today,” Dassault chief Eric Trappier told the French Senate at a hearing on the project in May.
French President Emmanuel Macron was more diplomatic but just as clear. In a recent speech, he said: “Ukraine is showing that we can only give Kyiv what we have and what we produce.
What comes from non-European countries is less manageable. It depends on deadlines, priorities and sometimes even third country permits.”
Berlin has a different point of view. Germany's European Sky Shield initiative, a missile defense project to which the UK is a party, will use American and Israeli-made Patriot and Arrow missiles.
Other differences involve strategy. Germany is cautious in making statements about its support for Ukraine's membership in NATO, so as not to cause antagonism with Russia.
Momtaz says: “The French thought it was strategically important to send another signal to Russia that Ukraine's path to NATO was credible. one».
Unlike French President Emmanuel Macron, Germany has been cautious about supporting Ukraine's entry into NATO. Photo: SARAH MEISSONIER/Reuters
These divergent views on defense production, sales and policy approaches are starting to pile up.
However, there is reason to be optimistic about Franco-German relations in general and SCAF in particular, insists Lucie Bero-Sudreaux, program director of the military spending and armaments program at the SIPRI think tank.
Although a number of projects between the countries were fraught with delays and disputes, some of which have paid off.
He points to the Airbus A400M transport aircraft and, more broadly, to the success of Airbus, which is basically a German-French enterprise.
We also have enough time to resolve any issues, she adds. , as a SCAF aircraft is not expected to take to the skies for nearly two decades.
«It's a long time,» she says. «Things can change, things can evolve.»
And while Germany is skeptical of Saudi Arabia's arms sales, it is not a shy arms dealer. Bero-Sudro says: «If you look at the result, at the level of arms exports, they are still one of the largest arms exporters in the world.»
In 2021, Germany exported 9.35 billion euros worth of arms . , led by sales to Egypt. It is the fifth largest arms seller in the world after the US, Russia, France and China.
In the end, necessity will likely mean that Scholz and Macron will find a compromise on SCAF and weapons. -buying in general, says IISS's Momtaz.
«There can't be this kind of division and difficulty between Germany and France, who are by far the two most important powers in the EU, given the war in Ukraine.»
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