Alistair Strathearn, Labor candidate for the Mid Bedfordshire by-election, campaigns in the constituency ahead of the by-election Photo: Victoria Jones/PA < p>Tory campaigners expect Thursday's by-election to result in two «significant» Labor victories, a leaked document shows.
The Conservatives are defending a large majority in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth following the resignations of Nadine Dorries and Chris. Pinscher.
But a note from campaigners to Greg Hands, the Conservative party chairman, said their votes in the two seats would be halved. Telephone campaigning suggests the party will only win around 30 per cent of the vote as hundreds of Tory stalwarts remain at home.
The report concludes: “It is highly unlikely that our local campaign will have enough of an impact to bring about a significant improvement likely level of Conservative voter turnout and, as a consequence, two significant Labor victories are expected.»
The note, leaked to Sky News, also said voters in Mid Bedfordshire were unhappy with Ms Dorries' performance. the decision to delay her resignation for several weeks «caused enormous dissatisfaction with the party as a whole.»
It comes after the former Conservative minister urged Mid Bedfordshire voters to support Labor in a letter delivered to households.
Anne Soubry, a former health minister, said: “I am fed up with the decline of our country. Declining standard of living, values, hopes. Although the Conservative Party has moved away from our values, Labor has embraced them.» However, Lord Hayward, a fellow Conservative and leading election expert, said the party could hold on to Mid Bedfordshire because of the battle between Labor and the Lib Dems He told The Telegraph: “In Mid Bedfordshire you have Labor and the Lib Dems still beating each other up, which gives the Tories a chance.”
But one Conservative source said: “Governments don't win by-elections. On the Doorstep things often come up about Dorris and people get mad at her, but on the Doorstep we also see that very few people defect to the Labor Party. There is a lot of apathy and anger among voters. Frankly, I think our party will stay at home.»
The Conservatives are defending a majority of more than 24,000 in Ms Dorries' old seat and one in 20,000 in Tamworth.
Ms Dorries resigned as an MP after Boris Johnson's peerage nomination was blocked, and Mr Pincher resigned following allegations of sexual harassment.
It is not known who wrote the note to Mr -well Hands, and its leak will raise concerns that the Conservatives are engaged in expectation management.
The note said that in Mid Bedfordshire, «survey data collected shortly after the election called showed that our share of the vote had halved, from 59 per cent at the last general election to around 29 or 30 per cent at the by-election.»
Analysis of data collected over the last 10 days «suggests a very similar vote share,» the report said, «with the latest five-day data putting the vote share at about 30 percent.»
Festus Akinbusoye, Conservative candidate for Mid-Bedforshire, on the campaign trail. Photo: David Rose for The Telegraph
Tamworth said an analysis of data collected over the past 10 days «points to a likely Conservative vote share of 28 per cent or 33 per cent.»
The memo said there were «very few direct switches» from those voted Tory in the 2019 general election over other parties, meaning most are likely to stay home in the by-election.
It cites data. suggesting only five per cent of 2019 Tory voters in Mid Beds would switch to Labor, and only eight per cent in Tamworth. But the stay-at-home factor means both by-elections are likely to see a «significant increase» in Labour's vote share, with a significant drop in turnout.
The memo says there are «unfavorable views of Nadine Dorries» in Mid Bedfordshire strongly associated with a Conservative voter switching to Labor or the Lib Dems in 2019, «don't know or won't vote in a by-election.»
“Many voters still raise the issue of Nadine Dorris and her election record. on the doorstep without prompting,” he adds. «Many voters clearly link Nadine Dorries and Chris Pincher to the party's difficulties last year.
«Many voters still tell canvassers and callers that they are determined to use their abstention as a tool to express their dissatisfaction and politics of the past year, and Nadine Dorries personally.”
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