Iranian Quds Force takes part in anti-American rally Photo: Fatemeh Bahrami/Getty
The Institute for the Study of War, a think tank in Washington, updates its web page entitled «Israel-Hamas War» (Iran updates) every day since the October 7 massacre in southern Israel.
This page is essentially a diary and does not evoke emotions. the fighting itself (“because these activities are well covered in the Western media”), but coolly lists the activities of Hamas and all the other Iranian-backed combatants in the region.
The picture that emerges is not the myopic picture the film crews paint TV news with cameras trained on the Gaza Strip, but a broader battle plan laid out on the field commander's desk.
Without the noise of war, you might think it's less alarming. But the opposite is true.
The diary shows that since the morning of October 7, well-equipped Iranian-backed militias have been concentrating like pincers on Israel's borders.
«Twenty attacks from Lebanon into Israeli territory… Hezbollah withdraws its cadres from abroad… quantity clashes in the West Bank have increased by 470 percent…Iran-backed militias in Iraq are targeting US troops…up to 500 Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces have arrived in Syria and Lebanon…» — the list goes on and on.
Sima Shine, an Iran specialist who worked as a research director for the Mossad's intelligence division, was not a hawk by Israeli standards but is now reconsidering her position.
“There are those in Israel who think that everything is Iran. I don't belong to them. But unfortunately, perhaps in some cases they were more right than I was,” she said.
Ms. Shine added that it had been clear for more than a year that Iran was consolidating the disparate militias it funds across the Levant into a more cohesive and coordinated force; a force that Iran itself calls its «axis of resistance» or «resistance front.»
It was formed, according to Ms. Shine, by Esmail Qaani, commander of Iran's Quds Force, a branch of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. (IRGC), responsible for extraterritorial military and covert operations.
Esmail Qaani, commander of Iran's Quds Force, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps unit responsible for extraterritorial military operations. Photo: Morteza Nikubaz. /Getty
This is not just a matter of like-minded fanatics reading tea leaves and acting in unison, but something more formal and strategic.
“They created a military base in Beirut. They meet there with the Palestinians, Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah, as well as the IRGC. They met in Lebanon and now also have a foothold in Syria for consolidation,” Ms. Shine said.
“We see that Qaani constantly visited Iraq, Syria, Lebanon; Iraq, Syria, Lebanon. Always organizes everything.”
“Focus on ground attacks”
At the same time, Iran is pushing its proxies to focus on ground attacks like the one launched by Hamas on October 7.
In an interview published on the Supreme Leaders website last August, IRGC commander Major General Hossein Salami called on the «infantry» in the West Bank to conduct more ground operations against Israeli security forces to foment unrest.
» Missiles are excellent for deterrence or static warfare. [But] they are not liberating land,” he said.
To achieve the Palestinians' long-stated goal of destroying Israel and replacing it with the state of Palestine, they must go beyond isolated terrorist attacks and missile barrages.
As these teams prepare in Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, questions are being raised not only about how Israeli intelligence misinterpreted Hamas's intentions, but also about what will happen when the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) move into the strip Gaza. This move, which must happen in the next few days if Israeli voters are to be reassured, could set off a much wider conflagration in the region.This will be the “first big test” of the “axis of resistance,” Ms. Shine said. In Iran's own words, “We will face a multidimensional war. This will not only be on one front, but on several fronts.” North, south and west.
Ms. Shine said the mistake in preparing for the October 7 attack was not military (many of Hamas' preparations were watched in real time) but political. alone.
Money flowed into Gaza and living standards improved.
“Everyone was happy with the idea of feeding the beast and the beast would remain quiet,” she said. “That was the faith. And I admit, I believed in it too… But you know, this is a Western view of life — and this is a huge mistake.”
A similar mystery now hangs over Israel's response to the October 7th attack.
A larger conflagration
With cruise missiles already approaching the Red Sea from Yemen, rocket launches from Lebanon and deadly clashes occurring in the West Bank, no one knows better than the IDF that the planned ground attack on the Gaza Strip could trigger a much larger fire.
However, Israel believes it has no choice but to enter Gaza and neutralize Hamas as a military force.
“We gave it a chance, but we cannot allow it. You can't live under the threat of a sword on both fronts all the time. One day we will have to take care of the northern arena. We can't live like this. But first, let's get this out of the way,” one senior Israeli security official said this week about moves to destroy Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
The US has sent two aircraft carrier battle groups to the eastern Mediterranean to provide a “strong message of deterrence.” » for those who might be tempted to join the conflict.
Ms Shine said carrier task forces have long-range offensive capabilities, but the intention is for them to be present as a deterrent; draw a red line over the opening of a second front.
She hopes it will work, but, once bitten, is now cautious.
“I don’t know if it will succeed,” she said. «If not, well… [Joe] Biden could be a huge surprise.»
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