The Central Bank will arrange preventative measures for the ruble

Tomorrow the Central Bank will resume foreign exchange operations with funds from the National Welfare Fund, their daily volume will exceed 11.5 billion rubles. The regulator plans to sell as much currency as the Ministry of Finance took from the National Welfare Fund. It will also take into account last year’s operations within the framework of the fiscal rule, which had to be postponed due to volatility.

But there will be no immediate impact on This will not have any effect on the ruble exchange rate, analysts agree. The effect will be cumulative, and exchange trading volumes will increase gradually, says Valery Weisberg, director of the analytical department of the investment company Region: “If we talk about changes regarding the situation during the holiday week, I think that there are no major changes. We can expect that the trading volume will gradually increase, but the market will probably not be able to immediately return to its usual turnover.

Many participants are still on vacation, so most likely we will not see any sharp movements in the currency. We are waiting for news from the Ministry of Finance on oil and gas revenues, but I think that in January this factor will not be the most important. It is likely that the exchange rate will strengthen in the second half of the month, ahead of the tax period.”

The ruble began the New Year 2024 with a noticeable weakening — on January 3, the dollar rose in price to 92 rubles. This happened against the backdrop of fluctuations in oil prices. Brent prices fell sharply below $75 per barrel, but soon recovered their decline. In general, the national currency will strengthen moderately, says Arikapital investment strategist Sergei Suverov: “In January, after the December surge, the demand for imports seasonally decreases, and the degree of financing of government budget expenditures normalizes. The situation on the money market should improve. I think that we will see figures of approximately 90 rubles. for $1.

After a series of increases in the key rate by the Central Bank, the ruble is helped by high interest rates. We can also expect an increase in oil prices, since a deficit of 300 thousand barrels per day is expected in the global hydrocarbon market in the 1st quarter.”

Total annual sales of currencies by the Central Bank respondents “ Analysts valued Kommersant FM at 1 trillion rubles. The average dollar exchange rate will remain at 90 rubles, the Ministry of Economic Development predicts.

.