How millions of new voters could shape the US election

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If the polling is correct, Joe Biden will become the 46th president of the United States. But four years ago, the polling was wrong – so if we want to understand the political future of the country, it’s important to look to more reliable sources of information than just the polls.

And to look at some voter groups that could be important.

The early voting data is valuable

Early voting data is an important place to start. There is no doubt that at least 97 million votes have already been cast – those have been counted and are far more precise than any survey. And because those numbers are so high, we can predict that overall turnout is likely to break records.

In Texas, so many early votes have been cast that the current ballot count is equal to at least 108% of all the votes counted in the state in 2016.

This early voting data is much more valuable than simple polling because we also have information about party registration. So we can say with a high degree of confidence that most early votes have been cast for the Democratic party (assuming that people have not suddenly and dramatically made recent changes in their political affiliations).

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Based on the 20 states where party ID information was available, almost half (45%) of the votes reported as of Monday afternoon had come from people registered with the Democratic party and 31% had come from registered Republicans. This is consistent with previous elections, where Democrats have been much more likely to cast early ballots.

A global pandemic and concerns about voter suppression have encouraged many to vote early and avoid the potential crowds and confusion on Tuesday. But these numbers are so high that they can’t be explained simply by regular voters casting their ballots early. In fact, of those that have already voted, about 24 million (a quarter of the ballots) are from people who did not vote in 2016 and 8 million (8%) are from people who are voting for the first time.

In other words, turnout is increasing because non-voters are showing up.

Non-voters turning out now are a powerful force

Not least because of his handling of the pandemic crisis, Trump has been having problems with two important demographic groups – seniors and suburban women, polls have suggested. “I saved your suburbs – women – suburban women, you’re supposed to love Trump,” he said at one rally in Muskegon, Michigan.

But perhaps the most important group are those who have not voted until this election. In 2016, 41% of adults who were eligible to vote did not do so. If “did not vote” had been a political party, it would have swept the country, winning all but eight states and DC. So, if we want to better understand what is going to happen on Tuesday, we need to take a closer look at non-voters.

People who do not vote in US presidential elections are younger than those who do, according to survey data gathered by Pew Research Center after the 2016 election …

And non-voters are much less likely to have completed college …

Non-voters are much less likely to be have an income over $30k per year …

And while voters are overwhelmingly white as a group, non-voters are much more likely to be people of color.

In short, non-voters are much more likely to be those who have the most to lose in an election because their race, income, education and age leaves them especially vulnerable to government policies. But in 2020, many people are switching sides – not from one side of the aisle to the other, but from being non-voters to becoming voters.

Each party will have worked hard not only to maintain their existing bases of support, but also to court certain groups of these non-voters.

Young voters are much more likely to identify as Democratic. So Biden will hope that young Americans who previously have not voted will show up and vote for him – almost two-thirds of millennials (people who were born between 1981 and 1996) say they are Democrats or Democratic-leaning.

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Democrats will also be counting on Americans of color who might not have voted previously – 84% of Black Americans and 63% of Latinos say that they lean Democratic (compared with 43% of white Americans). But when it comes to education, things start to look less promising for Democrats. A boost in turnout of Americans who haven’t gone to college could be good news for the Republicans who have slightly more support among that group. In fact, much of the analysis of Trump’s win in 2016 focused on the educational divide in America and Republican votes from those who had completed high school or less.

Overall, it looks like a very positive picture for Democrats. So far, turnout is up and it is probably increasing in part because non-white, young voters are showing up and checking Biden’s name on their ballot papers.

Buta Democratic win also depends on three key things happening; 1) Covid must not keep large numbers of Democrats at home; 2) there can’t be widespread voter suppression causing a sudden drop in their tally; and 3) the polling cannot be dramatically more wrong in 2020 than it was in 2016. Those are big “if”s in a year that has shown just how fragile our assumptions are.