Eight of the top 10 seats viewed as most likely to flip, based on polls by CNN, are held by Republicans
Credit: Bloomberg
All eyes are focused on Donald Trump as he pursues another term in the White House, but another important race rages on.
The battle for the United States Senate, culminating on November 3, is also hugely significant for the future of the country.
But why is this the case, and what could the outcome be? Read below to find out.
What is it?
The Senate is the upper chamber of Congress, which has the power to ratify treaties, confirm senior government appointees and judges, as well as introducing legislation. The lower chamber of Congress is the House of Representatives, which has 435 members.
Every four years when the presidency is up for grabs, one third of the 100-member Senate and the entire House are up for election. This also happens in even-numbered years when there is not a presidential election.
Senators serve six-year terms and must be at least 30 years of age.
Right now the Senate is under Republican control, with the party enjoying a 53-47 majority, but the impending elections could change this.
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Senate forecast
Why is it important?
The race between the Democrats and Republicans is tight this year — and the result could have great implications for whoever wins the presidency.
The party that controls the Senate will have power over the next president’s legislative agenda, cabinet officials and judicial appointments.
If Democratic nominee Joe Biden unseats Mr Trump, but fails to gain the Senate, he could be left unable to pass legislation important to his presidency — on issues such as healthcare, climate change and immigration.
Likewise for Mr Trump, a Democrat-controlled Senate could stall some of his more conservative policies.
Until now a gridlock in the Senate has had a significant impact, leading to little progress on key issues including economic recovery during the coronavirus pandemic.
Democrats could win back the US Senate from Republicans
Where will the battle be decided?
Eight of the top 10 seats viewed as most likely to flip, based on polls by CNN, are held by Republicans. The party is defending 23 seats this year, compared to the Democrats’ 12.
Arizona, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, Georgia, Montana, and Iowa are Republican held but considered competitive by Democrats. The party also thinks it has a good chance of winning in Arizona and Colorado from Republican control.
Democrats however are widely projected to lose a seat in the traditionally Republican state of Alabama, one they managed to capture during a special election in 2017.
This means they will need to win five seats to gain a majority, or four if Mr Biden wins, as his vice-president Kamala Harris would have the deciding vote in the event of a tie-break.
Meanwhile, the Republicans are looking towards Alabama and Michigan to strengthen their majority.
Read more: US election polls
Who are the key players?
In Maine, long-term Republican Senator Susan Collins is caught between voters who are unhappy she has not embraced Mr Trump and those who are disappointed she has not done more to stand up to him, giving the Democrats an opportunity.
Over in Colorado first-term Republican Senator Cory Gardner is suffering from the decline in Mr Trump’s popularity, for whom he has been considered a long-term ally.
Arizona’s Republican candidate too is suffering from her connection to Mr Trump. Martha McSally is behind former astronaut Mark Kelly, in part due to Mr Trump’s alienation to Arizona’s growing suburban and Latino population.
But in Michigan, although Democrat Senator Gary Peters has a 43 per cent majority among the electorate, Republican John James’ 42 per cent backing keeps the race neck and neck.
The Senator most likely to lose their seat is Democrat Doug Jones of Alabama.
The appointment of Amy Coney Barrett as Supreme Court judge could have an impact
Credit: AFP
Who looks likely to win?
So far the Senate race looks even closer than the presidential election. Democrats are favoured by forecasters to win the presidency and keep the House majority, but the future of the Senate is far less certain.
Right now, the Democrats are likely to win a majority by a small margin of 52.4 seats to 47.6, according to polling by the Economist.
In early October the Republicans had a bleak outlook, thanks to Mr Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic and the controversial first presidential debate, which has impacted current polling.
But now record level spending in key states has spurred the Republicans on, and leaning states appear to be stabilising.
The appointment of Amy Coney Barrett as Supreme Court judge could also have an impact yet to be reflected by analysis.
What are the key races to watch?
As the struggle for the Senate is so unpredictably narrow, there are several vital races which might just swing the outcome of the 2020 election.
Firstly, California’s 21st Congressional District is an important race, as Democrat, TJ Cox’s ability to maintain his seat in the previously Republican-ruled area of Southern California will offer an indication of the strength of the blue’s power overall. Just two years ago, in 2018, Cox defeated the Republican candidate, David Valadao, by less than one point, so the world will undoubtedly watch this re-battle in anticipation.
The race for New York’s 11th Congressional District is another telling sign of Mr Trump or Mr Biden’s success, as, despite New York’s reputation as a Democratic state, Republican Nicole Malliotakis is putting up a tough fight for this Staten Island borough with a previously Republican stronghold.
Thirdly, the battle between Xochitl Torres Small, a Democratic Congresswoman, and Republican Yvette Herrell, for the 2nd Congressional District of New Mexico, guarantees to be an exceptionally close race, as the Democrats claimed the district by as little as 4,000 votes in 2018.
What time do the results come out?
In previous elections, most states declare their results throughout the night, and the winner becomes more apparent when the swing states announce their electoral candidates. However, in the case of the 2020 election, the results are harder to trace, as over 94 million citizens cast their vote by post, meaning the counting process will not be complete on the night.
Therefore, while election night will suggest which presidential candidate will come out victorious, the official results may take a number of days to be confirmed.
If the timings are similar to those of the 2016 election, we will have a clear idea of the results by around 7.30 GMT on Wednesday, November 4th.
'I Voted' stickers given out in Las Vegas to early voters
Credit: Steve Marcus/Las Vegas Sun
2020 Senate Polls:
While the presidential race consumes most of the news throughout the 2020 election, it is essential to remember that around a third of the 100-member Senate is up for re-election. Gaining a majority of the Senate would be a massive victory for the Democrats, as the Republicans overrule the Senate by 53-47. This would give the Democrats the overwhelming power to approve specific trade deals and legislation’s, while also having the capacity to promote certain individuals to governmental positions.
Among the key states with the power to swing the control over the Senate are Washington, which is split 53-47 between Republicans and Democrats, and North Carolina, whose race for the Congress is one of the most expensive congressional battles in US history.
US Senate Election Predictions:
In current polls, the Democrats appear to be coming out slightly on top, though, absolutely nothing is certain. However, the most antiquated poll data comes from the exit poll, which is typically released around 11 pm GMT. It is, however, vital to note that voters are notoriously inaccurate in their exit polls and that while the survey will give an indication to who will come out victorious, nothing is certain until the electoral college confirm the numbers.
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