The path to the White House — how Joe Biden or Donald Trump can secure victory

As the US presidential election enters its final stretch, challengers Donald Trump and Joe Biden each have very different potential routes to claim power.

US 2020 election

In a close-fought campaign which upset predictions from polling data, President Trump’s most likely path to claiming 270 electoral college votes — and a second term — could lie in Pennsylvania.

Former Vice President Joe Biden — widely tipped to win comfortably — will now only rest on Nevada, where he has held a narrow lead. Picking up either Michigan or Pennsylvania would then hand him victory

Five states remain to be called — Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — with Biden needing to carry at least two to win, while Trump would need at least four.

The eventual outcome is almost certain to come down to millions of mail-in votes.

By 8pm (GMT), Biden held leads in Michigan and Nevada — with just 67 per cent reporting in the latter and a margin of fewer than 8,000.

Remaining key battleground states

Trump’s path to victory

Trump’s most likely road to victory goes through Pennsylvania — repeating his win in 2016. If he takes the state he will still require three of the other battleground states to secure 270 electoral votes. If he doesn’t win Pennsylvania, he’ll have to pick up a clean run of all other four remaining states.

Trump led the voting in Pennsylvania about 53.2 per cent to 45.6 per cent with about 64 per cent of the votes likely counted.

Possible routes to power for Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Biden’s path to victory

Biden’s most likely road to victory lies in taking Nevada and either Michigan, Georgia or Pennsylvania.

Trump held a majority of the votes by 8pm GMT in two of those states, with 50.2 per cent in Georgia and 53.2 per cent in Pennsylvania.

Many of the votes remaining to be counted there were mail-in ballots from Detroit and its suburbs, where Democrats have historically enjoyed an electoral advantage.

Officials in Nevada, where Biden had a razor-thin 49.2 to 48.6 lead with 67 per cent reporting, said they would not resume counting ballots until Thursday morning. 

US 2020 election table