North Carolina 2020 election results: how it has become an important swing state this election 

President Donald Trump addresses a crowd during a campaign rally in Lumberton, North Carolina

Credit: Melissa Sue Gerrits /Getty Images North America 

North Carolina is not traditionally a swing state. It has voted Republican in every election since 1980, bar 2008 when it surprisingly flipped for Barack Obama. 

Donald Trump took the state for the Republicans in 2016, winning over Hillary Clinton by 3.6 per cent. With a rapidly increasing suburban, college-educated population, the Tar Heel state’s 13 Electoral College seemed firmly in play for Joe Biden.

The vast majority of the votes that have been reported so far in North Carolina are early votes, meaning that the numbers are — in theory — more favourable towards Mr Biden.

However, Mr Trump still has a lead of 1.4 per cent with 95 per cent of all votes reported, meaning that it is highly likely he will win North Carolina.

In North Carolina, Republican Senator Thom Tillis declared victory over his Democratic challenger, Cal Cunningham. But the race had not been called, with Mr Tillis leading by less than 2 percentage points. State election officials said no further results would be available until Nov. 12 at the earliest, when all mail-in ballots are received and counted.

Follow live US election results here

When will we know the winner of the US election?

State polling US Presidential election 2020

A total of 262,000 North Carolinians have caught the coronavirus, the seventh highest toll for any state during the pandemic. Furthermore, the suburban population of North Carolina has grown by one million people since 2016, according to Politico, handing Mr Biden a significant numerical boost in the area he needs to win.

However, Mr Biden will also need to draw the African-American vote, as Mr Obama did in 2008 when he took the state. Kamala Harris, the vice-president on Mr Biden’s ticket, has been campaigning in North Carolina, in an attempt to court the black vote.

“This particular year, it has to be a focus because the Republican Party has made such an effort – not in a positive manner – an effort to court or depress the black vote,” state House Democratic Leader Robert Reives told Politico. “I think there’s always a concern because there’s been such an effort to depress it.”

Follow live US election updates

Mr Trump will be hoping to counteract this push from the Democrats by drawing on big support from rural counties. He won by 20 points in rural areas over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and will need that voter base to come out in force once again if he wants a second term.

The state is of great importance to Mr Trump. It is a traditionally right-leaning state, and it would represent a major coup for Mr Biden, were he able to take it. Statistical modelling by FiveThirtyEight shows that if Mr Biden wins, he has a 95 per cent chance of winning the White House.

Read more: Who is winning Pennsylvania’s election votes?