Five graphs showing why Trump's conviction won't hurt his re-election chances

According to polls, only 17 percent will refuse to support Donald Trump. Photo: Shutterstock

“I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters,” Donald Trump said in early 2016, just months before he walked into the city for the first time. The White house. 

The falsification of business records for which the now-former president was convicted Thursday may be minor in comparison, but his voting instincts have yet to be proven inaccurate.

According to NPR. /PBS Newshour/A Marist poll released hours before the verdict found that two-thirds of registered US voters (67 percent) said finding Trump guilty would not affect their vote.

Just 17 percent would withdraw their support.

In a sign of how polarized the country is, YouGov's first snap poll after the results were announced found that only half of Americans agreed with the Manhattan jury's unanimous conclusion.

Nationwide, the polls remain incredibly close. In a normal election, a criminal conviction could help break the deadlock, especially in nearby swing states. But this isn't normal

Will Trump now lose support from his base?

A quarter of Trump supporters (24 percent) said a conviction in the hush money case would make them more likely to vote, according to a Marist poll for him in November. Only 7 percent said the opposite. 

Just 10 percent of Republican voters overall told the Marist Poll that a conviction would make them abandon him this cycle, compared with 25 percent who said it would make them more likely to vote for him. . This is the politics of highly polarized politics.

It is clear that the loyalty of Trump's base is unlikely to be shaken by 34 charges. However, the judge's decision during sentencing on July 11 could have a more significant effect. 

Last month, an ABC News/Ipsos poll found that 65 percent of voters who backed the Republican in 2020 would back him in 2024 if convicted. That number would drop to 53 percent if he were serving time in prison on Election Day.

But most experts agree he won’t see the inside of a prison cell — even though Trump’s behavior during the trial itself won’t work in his favor.

So could this seal the deal for Joe Biden?

The short answer, of course, is that it's still too It's too early to say for sure. Anything can happen in four months.

The best indicator will be the verdict on July 11, when the once most powerful man in the world will either end up behind bars or simply forced to continue running for president as a convicted felon.

With only his name indicted, most polls show the race will still be over: Most of his MAGA supporters and Republican voters in general remain with him, while most independent experts believe this is a secondary phenomenon in relation to the main issues.

Mr. Trump's team will certainly appeal the verdict, and he himself announced at the entrance to the courthouse that the case «has not been finished for a long time.» «The people will give a real verdict on November 5 «.