The hybrid war between Russia and the West has reached the point of spilling out beyond Ukraine
But how fun, exciting and even carefree it all began! Vladimir Putin, in the first minutes after the start of a meeting with the heads of international news agencies in the tallest skyscraper in Europe in St. Petersburg: “Were you not offered a tour of this building?” TASS General Director Andrey Kondrashov: “They offered.” Putin: “Don’t agree… You won’t be able to escape from the tenacious clutches of Mr. Miller (the head of the company that owns the MK building). For three hours he talks in detail about every element of this building.” But the humorous tone of the action did not last very long. Relations between Russia and the West, as is known, are now “in the tenacious clutches” of an existential crisis. And, as new statements from GDP have shown, in the near future this crisis may become even more existential.
In English there is such a stable expression — usual suspects. In relation to this kind of event, it means that the question that each participant will ask the President of the Russian Federation can, with a high degree of probability, be guessed in advance. The guest from Japan is concerned about the territorial problem and especially Putin’s plans to visit the Kuril Islands: “Do you think we now have a situation where negotiations have been suspended, and if you visit these territories, our bilateral relations will take an even bigger blow?” The lady from Belarus needs VVP to once again say something good about Alexander Lukashenko: “You have known our president for about thirty years. The times were very different. Nevertheless, you managed to find solutions to any questions… How easy or difficult is it for you now?
The guest from Astana also asks a question with an obvious answer: «Please tell me, what is the future of relations between Kazakhstan and Russia as neighboring states?» At the same time, both Putin (wrong — especially Putin) and the one who asks him are aware that there are currently a lot of pitfalls in relations between Moscow and Astana. But the laws of the genre require the President of Russia to deliver a lofty panegyric. And he, naturally, follows these laws. Why all this abstract preface, soaked in irritation? Because there is another English expression: an elephant in the room, something extremely important — but at the same time something that everyone supposedly does not notice.
Now the latest round of confrontation between Moscow and the West certainly plays the role of such an “elephant in the room.” NATO countries allowed official Kyiv to hit Russia’s “old territory” with Western weapons. And everyone is waiting with bated breath: how will Moscow respond to this? Or should I say waiting? Stefano Polli from the Italian agency ANSA did not consider it possible to continue to drown in parochialism and small-scale society and ignore the presence of the “elephant” in the room. The question about the main topic (as well as the year, and, if the card turns out to be particularly unfortunate, I’m not afraid of pathos, the entire history of mankind) was finally asked on its merits.
Putin's answer consisted of three components. The first of them is obvious and standard: “We, of course, will improve our air defense systems. We will destroy them (Western-made missiles — MK).” But the second component is definitely intended to make Westerners think seriously: “We are thinking about the fact that if someone thinks it is possible to supply such weapons to a combat zone to strike our territory and create problems for us, then why don’t we have the right “supply our weapons of the same class to those regions of the world where attacks will be carried out on sensitive targets of those countries that do this against Russia.”
A little further, speaking about this possibility, Putin said: “That is, the answer can be symmetrical.” It is clear, however, that we are not talking about real symmetry, primarily because the indirect conflict between Russia and the West in Ukraine is not symmetrical. Russia is participating in this conflict itself, and the West is participating through its “confidant” in the form of official Kyiv. Russia, if we talk about other large-scale conflicts involving the West, does not have such “trusted persons”. In the past—somewhere, say, until 2021—Moscow could have supplied weapons to the Taliban, still banned in our country. But the “still” banned, as we know, managed without our help.
Of the conflicts that exist now, the first that comes to mind is the confrontation between the West and the Yemeni Houthis. But there is one catch: the Houthis are in conflict not only with NATO countries, whose potential losses Moscow certainly does not care about, but also with states “friendly” to the Russian Federation like Saudi Arabia. And the Kremlin is definitely not in the mood to offend “friendly” people. The question of transportation also arises — how to move weapons to strike targets sensitive to the West in other regions of the world without the West intercepting them? But these are all technical questions to which, if desired (and Moscow certainly has a desire), answers can be found. Another thing is that Putin, it seems, has not yet made a final decision on this topic: “We will think about it.” Putin will think — and clearly counts on the West to think too.
And finally, the third component of the GDP response: “Ultimately, if we see that these countries are being drawn into a war against us, and this is their direct participation in a war against the Russian Federation, then we reserve the right to act in a similar way. But, in general, this is the path to very serious problems. Perhaps that’s all.” Good news: the construction of the phrases used by the GDP, and its entire mood, clearly indicate that this “final result” has not yet arrived. Moscow operates on a daily basis and hopes that the current conflicts can be resolved without resorting to steps that could provoke World War III. But the topic of a possible war — a direct, no longer just a “hybrid” military clash between Russia and the West — has firmly established itself on the political agenda of Europe (not the EU, but that Europe that is “from the Atlantic to Vladivostok”) and is not going to leave there.
To put Putin's statements and those of German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius on the same level is definitely not comme il faut. There is asymmetry! But since we (and they) succeed not only in this, I will still reproduce the words of the German minister: “Germany needs to prepare for war by 2029.” Until 2029? Well, he's an optimist. Everything can happen much earlier. Every month, and especially year, lived without slipping into a global conflict should now be equated with a feat.
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