Members of Amhara region militias ride on their truck as they head to face the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), in Sanja, Amhara region near a border with Tigray, Ethiopia November 9, 2020.
Credit: REUTERS/Tiksa Negeri
Hundreds are feared dead amid heavy fighting and fighter jet airstrikes in northern Ethiopia, as Africa’s second most populous nation lurches towards full-scale civil war.
An Ethiopian military official said on Monday that the air force is "pounding targets with precision" as the federal government continues its invasion of the defiant northern region of Tigray.
The Tigray government has confirmed the federal government’s aerial assault saying that the air force had carried out more than ten aerial attacks so far. It said it had shot down one fighter jet, but a senior federal government general categorically denied the claim.
Last week, Ethiopia’s Nobel Peace Prize-winning Prime Minister launched an invasion of the semi-autonomous Tigray region, which borders Eritrea and Sudan, prompting alarm amongst international observers.
Analysts fear that a protracted conflict in Tigray could lead to the ‘Balkanisation’ of the vast nation of 110m into different ethnic regions, and risk destabilising swathes of the Horn of Africa.
An Ethiopia's Amhara Region militia man poses in the town of Musebamb, 44 kms northwest from Gondar, on November 7, 2020
Credit: EDUARDO SOTERAS /AFP
The dramatic escalation came after months of bellicose rhetoric between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s federal government in Addis Ababa and Tigray’s ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).
The federal government claims it is trying to liberate the Tigray region from the TPLF and that the Tigrayan leaders are trying to destabilise the government and incite violence amongst the country’s array of ethnicities.
The TPLF dominated politics for nearly three decades before Abiy came to power in 2018. Under Abiy, Tigray’s leaders have complained bitterly of being sidelined and scapegoated.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed saying that he is ordering a military response to a deadly attack by the ruling party of Tigray, a region locked in a long-running dispute with Addis Ababa, on a camp housing federal troops.
Credit: (Photo by — / Ethiopian Public Broadcaster (EBC) / AFP)
The TPLF commands a well equipped, battle-hardened force, while the Ethiopian federal military is one of the most powerful on the continent. All eyes are now on the federal army’s Northern Command, which is based in Tigray and comprises anywhere from 40 to 70 per cent of the country’s military.
The Northern Command has strong ties to the TPLF. If parts of the Command sides with Tigray against the federal government, it would be catastrophic for Addis Ababa and most probably lead to horrendous bloodshed.
Dino Mahtani, Deputy Africa director of the International Crisis Group, said: “A prolonged conflict could see Ethiopia violently unravel. The conflict with Tigray is just one prong of a multidimensional crisis pitting some of the country’s different ethnic constituencies against each other or against the federal government."
Mr Mahtani added that Ethiopia was already facing a major armed insurgency in Oromia, the most populous region in the country, and warned other regions might rebel against the federal government.
There are credible but unconfirmed reports of hundreds of influential Tigrayans being arrested in the capital. A communications blackout in Tigray makes reports difficult to verify. Local journalists are coming under pressure only to quote official government sources, while presenters on state television are referring to the TPLF as ‘blood-letting terrorists’.
Eritrea’s dictator Isaias Afwerki is mortal enemies with the TPLF and a strong ally of Addis Ababa. It is understood that Eritrea has sent military trainers to Tigray’s neighbouring Amhara state and that the TPLF is reportedly preparing for a pincer movement attack from Eritrea. Analysts say that if the TPLF come under too much pressure from the south, they may fight their way into Eritrea.
At the same time, Egypt — which is locked in an acrimonious feud with Addis Ababa over a giant dam being built on the Blue Nile river — may pressure Sudan to keep its border open with Tigray, allowing the TPLF to get supplies to keep fighting.
“Concerns that Ethiopia will descend into chaos are unfounded, and a result of not understanding our context deeply,” Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed wrote in a statement on Monday, trying to downplay international alarm at the escalating conflict.
Yet amid the chaotic reports, one thing is clear — the dream of a liberal democratic Ethiopia lifting the region out of decades of poverty and violence is now on its knees.
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