Political scientist Markov saw signs of the imminent end of the SVO

«The peace negotiations themselves will begin, I think, closer to August-September»

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who arrived in Kyiv on an unexpected visit, suggested that Vladimir Zelensky consider the possibility of a ceasefire before peace negotiations with Russia. What could be behind this proposal and are there any signs that the conflict will soon enter the negotiation track? Director of the Institute of Political Research Sergei Markov answers MK's questions.

Photo: Press service of the Ministry of Defense

— No, completely implausible. Moscow, firstly, has the opportunity to say everything directly. Secondly, Putin, Sergei Lavrov, and other Russian government officials have repeatedly explained why they are against stopping hostilities during the negotiations. You can remember Istanbul, and “Minsk-1”, and “Minsk-2”, when such negotiations did not end with anything good.

The West is simply deceiving, using the pause to rearm, in order to make the war even worse more intense and bloody. Russia, having such experience, will definitely not agree to stop the fighting during the negotiations.

So Orbán's idea… Well, to be honest, most countries in the Global South follow it too. They say: “Well, what are you doing? Just stop the fighting. It is clear that the negotiations will be very difficult and long. Let’s conduct these negotiations without war.” But this is a slightly naive idea of ​​reality.

— Yes, I think these are rumors that should not be believed. The US administration is most interested in a peaceful respite today. According to opinion polls, Joe Biden could be defeated if the fighting continues. 83 percent of Americans believe that the current conflict is a hybrid war between Russia and America, which could escalate into a direct nuclear war and lead to the complete destruction of the United States.

If nothing changes, Americans will not vote for Biden, perceiving him as a war president. Nuclear war. Therefore, Biden is interested in stopping the fighting before the election. Well, if there is a high probability that the Americans will come to Russia with proposals and will be ready to make some concessions, why, under these conditions, should we ourselves show negotiating softness?

We have already said that we do not want a truce . Because this will just be a respite — in order to carry out a more total mobilization in Ukraine, equip it with the F-16 and other weapons systems, and launch the Western military-industrial complex. We do not want a truce, but peace. On our long-formulated and expressed terms. If these conditions are met, Russia will be ready to make peace. Otherwise, the fighting will continue.

– Yes. I'm sure talks about negotiations are already underway. I have no information, but I feel it: from some comments, statements, dropped phrases… But not yet the peace negotiations themselves. The peace negotiations themselves will begin, I think, closer to August-September.

— The presidential elections in the United States will take place in early November. Therefore, the Biden campaign needs to ensure that hostilities are suspended at least in October. They should not go on the day the elections are held.