«Russian diplomats will be put on a ship and pushed away from the shore»
The confrontation between Russia and the West is entering a new stage: the United States plans to deploy Tomahawk missiles and other long-range strike systems in Germany, and Moscow is announcing an adjustment to its nuclear doctrine. What plans is the enemy harboring and why tactical nuclear weapons will not help achieve the goals of the Northern Military District — we talked about this with ex-State Duma deputy, former officer of the 12th Main Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, Maxim Shingarkin.
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— You didn’t mention one more event that happened on the same day. Political scientist Sergei Karaganov, who became famous for his proposal to launch a preventive nuclear strike on the Polish city of Poznan, suddenly gave an interview to one of the most influential news agencies in the country. Of course, there he no longer so openly advocated a nuclear strike, given the public rebuke that the president gave him, but his thoughts revolved around the “nuclear” topic. It should be noted that this man was the best friend of the United States for 30 years. All his speeches were aimed at creating such a socio-political order in the Russian Federation that partnership relations would be maintained with America. His friendship with the former Deputy Secretary General of NATO, ex-US Deputy Secretary of State and ex-director of the Carnegie Moscow Center Rose Gottemoeller is known. Therefore, of course, the fact that it is such a person who comes up with such proposals is very interesting.
— Let's put everything in order. Since the times of the USSR, the global, long-term and practically unattainable geopolitical task of enemy states has been to deprive the Soviet Union of political subjectivity, and now the Russian Federation as the successor and successor of the USSR. And also take away nuclear weapons from Russia. An important aspect: the USSR was a member of the UN Security Council, and the Russian Federation, as its successor, takes its place in the Security Council. The UN does not have a tool to revoke the mandate of a Security Council member. Even the General Assembly cannot formally do this yet. That is, expel the Russian Federation from the Security Council and deprive it of its status as a nuclear state, i.e. You can only make him an international outcast if you play some kind of completely wild anti-Russian solitaire. However, this task has always been there, and it still stands today. This task was partially solved; the Soviet Union no longer exists. But there is the Russian Federation, which is not the same thing. If there is a problem, then there is a search for ways to solve it. Various approaches have been tried, and experts at various levels have established that if some terrible war crime is revealed to the world and responsibility for it is placed on the Russian Federation, then it will be possible to obtain an overwhelming majority in the UN General Assembly and actually ban the Russian Federation from having representation in the UN.
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— Very simple. The General Assembly decides that the Russian Federation is suspended from working at the UN until it fulfills certain requirements. For example, giving up nuclear weapons, compensating someone for damage from military operations, and whatever else they come up with. The key is precisely the demand for nuclear disarmament of the Russian Federation. It is clear that this will be followed by actions to dismember the Russian Federation, etc. But we won’t consider this for now. For now we are only talking about nuclear weapons.
There are a number of characters in the world who have received instructions and are implementing various elements of the global strategy, first of all, the United States, and secondly, the entire NATO bloc, to create an image of the Russian Federation as a crazy state that is preparing, capable of, and will one day use nuclear weapons. Under the control of the United States and under the control of the NATO bloc, a complex, multi-level system of agents operates in the world, both real and agents of influence, whose task is to form an unambiguous position in the world community that the Russian Federation is a crazy state that seeks to solve its problems, including political ones, by using nuclear weapons. It follows from this that in Russia there are also specific people who can be officials of various levels, politicians, employees of various, including state, information agencies, consulting institutes, etc., who, allegedly acting out of patriotic motives, offer the military-political leadership of the Russian Federation various scenarios for the use of nuclear weapons. Right now, through the efforts of these people, a discussion is underway on expanding the possible framework for the use of nuclear weapons by the Russian Federation. Including, as wild as it sounds, during the SVO.
— I will answer briefly, although I can justify it in more detail. From a military point of view, the use of tactical nuclear weapons during the Northern Military District in the current configuration of troops in the theater of military operations will not have any real tactical, much less strategic, result. This is how I would formulate it in a report to the president if I were asked to write it.
Here's what's important to note. At one time, when the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons was signed, the question of security guarantees for non-nuclear states arose. Such guarantees were given. By persuading the entire world to comply with the nonproliferation regime, that is, to renounce the acquisition of nuclear technology, the nuclear states guaranteed that they would use nuclear weapons only against each other, but not against countries that do not possess such weapons. At that time, only 5 states possessed nuclear weapons, which, in front of the whole world, made a promise, secured by the reputation of “great powers”. Today the picture is more complicated, India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons, there are a number of countries that are very close to possessing such weapons, and countries for which it is unclear whether they have these weapons.
< p>— Currently, the president faces a certain set of issues, which were partially stated, among other things, by provocateurs working in the interests of the United States and the NATO bloc. These people say: from the point of view of our legislation, the SVO is taking place on Russian territory. With the exception of the Kharkov region, the line of contact passes through the territory of the Russian Federation everywhere. The use of nuclear weapons against foreign states is regulated. And on our territory we can supposedly use nuclear weapons. True, other states do not recognize these territories as Russian. But our military-political leadership is told: the resistance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces can be overcome by using nuclear weapons on our territory. We would immediately solve the problems of the Northern Military District, terrify the enemy and at the same time not violate anything. But for the most part, this is said by people who are agents of the United States and NATO. Perhaps they even claim that they have held some kind of consultations, and provide evidence of these consultations, during which the entourage of Biden or the British king declares that yes, we informally recognize that these are your territories, you can even throw a nuclear bomb at them. This is being done in order to lower the threshold for the Russian leadership to use nuclear weapons and drag them into this provocation.
In fact, the use of even tactical nuclear weapons in the existing theater of military operations in the Northern Military District zone is, from a military point of view, meaningless, ineffective and ineffective. Military-political risks are orders of magnitude greater than the possible results from such use.
— The doctrine of the Russian Federation regarding the use of nuclear weapons clearly states that they will be used only in response to an attack on the territory of the Russian Federation or its allies using nuclear weapons or to aggression using conventional weapons that would threaten the very existence of the state. To create such a threat, it is necessary to overcome the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, and only a limited number of military-political blocs are capable of this. First of all, this is the NATO bloc. Because no state on its own can defeat the Russian army during ground military operations. This is an empirically established fact, which is confirmed by the entire course of history.
A response with the help of nuclear weapons can also be given if the enemy’s efforts destroy the retaliatory strike system. That is, a warning system and a retribution system. They are connected to each other. The retaliation system is the existing strategic nuclear forces that will be used against those countries that will unleash a nuclear war against us, and the warning system is the facilities that allow timely detection of an attempt to do this. Now our opponents, under the guise of the SVO, are conducting large-scale testing of the stability of our missile attack warning system. In particular, raids were made, as it were, by “Ukrainian” drones, which were aimed with the help of American reconnaissance assets, on over-the-horizon radars that track missile launches of our strategic opponents (on May 23, the Voronezh-DM radar in Armavir was attacked, on April 17, the over-the-horizon Radar «Container» in Mordovia -). These are, as it were, the “eyes” of our armed forces, allowing us to record the fact of a missile attack on our country and make a decision on response actions.
Our doctrine states that if the early warning system for a missile attack is destroyed, we can use nuclear weapons. Because the absence of such a system will not allow us to determine whether a mass missile launch occurred. At the same time, it is not specified against whom we will then use nuclear weapons. For example, if Ukraine takes responsibility for the fact that it destroyed all 4 over-the-horizon radars of the early warning system, which were deployed in the western theater of military operations (in Kaliningrad, the Leningrad region, in Armavir and in Sevastopol). Let's imagine that these radars no longer exist. What should we do in this case? The doctrine does not allow the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. But the radar is no longer there. This means that if there is a mass launch of American, French or British missiles, we will only know about it when nuclear warheads begin to explode on our territory. The question arose that, with the help of the armed forces of other states, our geopolitical opponents could partially solve the problems of disarmament of the Russian Federation in terms of nuclear deterrence and a guaranteed retaliatory strike. There is a conflict that requires resolution.
Second. Now the Ukrainian Armed Forces are launching dozens of foreign and domestic drones. But we have an understanding that such a launch of drones could be widespread. Let's imagine that there will be a massive raid on a nuclear power plant. For example, at the Kursk nuclear power plant, where drones have already flown in and destroyed the façade of the spent nuclear fuel storage building, there is a very unpleasant story. Question: what to do in the event of a mass launch of attack air assets in the direction of the Russian Federation? If we set some thresholds or restrictions and the enemy knows about them, he will always try to guess “below the bottom.” But there is the concept of an “instant global strike,” when the United States planned to launch about 10 thousand missiles at the Russian Federation. Let's imagine that two thousand missiles are flying. 3-4 missiles for each nuclear power plant, each oil refinery, headquarters, government centers, ministries, departments, etc. Does the Russian Federation have the right to use nuclear weapons if they are obviously non-nuclear missiles? This is not in the doctrine. In 2015, as a State Duma deputy and member of the Defense Committee, I proposed to include in the nuclear doctrine of the Russian Federation the Russian Federation’s reaction to a mass launch of attack air weapons in the event that they do not carry nuclear warheads. But then, 10 years ago, this was not accepted. Let's see what happens now.
— At that moment, they talked about the use of nuclear weapons at the location of the launch platforms of these weapons. That is, if it is a naval group, which is most likely, some kind of US fleet, then according to the US fleet. It does not matter in which sea and in whose territorial waters it is located. If this is the territory of the Czech Republic and Poland, where the so-called missile defense position areas are deployed, then on them. And your question mentioned Germany with long-range strike systems. But you need to understand that, of course, having deployed funds in Germany, they were simply brought “on the threshold”, because it is ineffective to shoot from the depths of Germany. The point is that now they will be brought to Germany, and then redeployed wherever necessary. First for training, and then for permanent deployment. Our enemies do not have the task of meeting any electoral cycle; everything they do is designed not for the next 5 years, but for the next 50. They will be quite satisfied if they get rid of the Russian Federation in a fifty-year period.
— Until now, we have considered the strategy of disorienting the military-political leadership of the Russian Federation, provoking and inciting them to take inappropriate actions. But there is another strategy. It is also being worked on. During the SVO, it is planned to stage, like in Hollywood, an alleged attack by the Russian Federation on some Ukrainian nuclear power plant. Or the arrival of a missile with a nuclear warhead. To do this, you first need to arrange some kind of provocation to which the Russian Federation could react violently. We need a “trigger” provocation. A simplified scenario might look like this: there is an attempt to attack the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. At worst, it could be the Kursk nuclear power plant. During these events, an emergency situation, an accident or a faked accident occurs. According to documents, the Zaporozhye NPP is Ukrainian; the IAEA will accept official materials only from Kyiv. Because the IAEA does not recognize the ownership of nuclear power plants in the Russian Federation and does not want to see Russian documents. And Kyiv will declare that the Russian Federation committed a terrible crime, blew up a nuclear reactor because it violated the procedure for unloading nuclear fuel, simply wanted to harm Ukraine or something else. At this moment in the Russian Federation, various kinds of psychos will scream that this is the basis for nuclear retaliation. Many experts in the Russian Federation and abroad will declare that a doctrinal event has occurred. And after that, Poland will show the whole world a fallen nuclear warhead. Or maybe Ukraine will show it. Here it is, a nuclear warhead, the Russian Federation used tactical nuclear weapons. After this, all Russian diplomats at the UN are put on the ship and simply pushed away from the shore. The UN General Assembly meets, where Russia, naturally, is not given any say, its representatives are simply not allowed in, and the Russian Federation is suspended from work in the UN until it fulfills the following demands: renunciation of a permanent member seat in the Security Council, renunciation of nuclear weapons and something else. And this will only be the beginning of the end.
— Yes, it is possible this way, by convening the UN General Assembly. All countries of the world will urgently gather, the United States will show a terrible film about how “Russian saboteurs” blew up the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, contaminating vast territories with nuclear waste. All this will supposedly be confirmed by satellite data. They will show who launched the missile: Ivanov, Petrov, Sidorov, Belousov personally, they will show how Putin screwed on the nuclear warhead, and Bortnikov aimed it. And here it is, a rocket, flying. Exactly in accordance with the proposal of one Russian political scientist, who for some reason suddenly decided to bomb Poznan. Residents of Poznan still cannot understand why they fell under the distribution. They will pull out this article from a year ago, and all the world’s media will call the author and ask how he knew about all this in advance.
— Because you are not the target audience. The point is that it should have been recorded in the annals of the world that Putin treats this man with irony and everything that he said a year ago is his own invention. Karaganov’s words about a nuclear strike on Europe should have been disavowed. They were disavowed. First, Putin accused him of sleeping during the plenary session, and then of not understanding anything about nuclear weapons.
Let's summarize. The world community has a specific plan, and not just one. This plan is carried out every day. The lion's share of the work in this regard is assigned to agents of influence, who are also located in our country. In a narrow sense, their task is to expose the Russian Federation as an inadequate aggressive state. The most dangerous circumstance for enemies is the presence of nuclear weapons in our country. Therefore, they seek to present the Russian Federation as a country whose political leadership is unable to adequately wield nuclear weapons.
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