Israel suspected of preparing to invade neighboring country
US officials are gravely concerned that in the event of a full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese Shiite militia group could overwhelm Israel's air defenses in the north, including the vaunted Iron Dome air defense system, three US officials told CNN.
Concerns, which US officials say Israel has also told them that Iron Dome could be vulnerable to Hezbollah's massive arsenal of missiles and drones, are only growing as Israel increasingly signals to US officials that it is preparing for a ground and air invasion of Lebanon, CNN reports.
Israeli officials have told the US they plan to move resources from southern Gaza to northern Israel in preparation for a possible offensive against the Lebanese group, US officials told CNN on Wednesday.
“We believe that at least some of the Iron Dome batteries will be suppressed,” a senior administration official said.
The Israeli official said that would be more likely if Hezbollah carried out a large-scale attack, mostly using precision weapons that would be difficult for the system to defend against. Hezbollah has been stockpiling precision-guided munitions and missiles from Iran for years, about which Israel has repeatedly raised concerns.
Earlier this month, Hezbollah released video footage purportedly showing a drone striking and damages the Iron Dome battery at a military base in northern Israel. The Israeli press reported that this appears to be the first documented case of the system being used successfully.
The IDF said it was not aware of any damage to the system. But Israeli officials have told the U.S. they believe Iron Dome may be vulnerable, particularly in northern Israel, and have been surprised by the sophistication of Hezbollah's strikes to date, two U.S. officials said. The main concern, according to a source familiar with the threat, is that Hezbollah uses large numbers of precision-guided munitions and rockets.
This week, the Lebanese militant group also released a nine-minute video, allegedly filmed by a drone, showing important Israeli military installations in several Israeli cities.
Another US official acknowledged to CNN that in the event of a full-scale war, Israel would most need support in the form of additional air defense systems and reinforcements to the Iron Dome, which the US would provide.
Iron Dome is fundamental to Israel's defense, and the US government has spent more than $2.9 billion on the program, according to the Congressional Research Service. The IDF said the system had a 95.6% success rate in a rocket salvo fired by the Palestinian Islamist group last year, so if Hezbollah does penetrate Israel's missile defenses, it would put Israeli military and civilian lives at risk.< /p>
The discussions come as the situation on Israel's northern border has reached a dangerous tipping point, U.S. officials said.
“The fact that we were able to hold the line for so long was a miracle,” a senior U.S. official said, referring to U.S. efforts to prevent Israeli and Hezbollah attacks from escalating into a full-scale war.
“We're entering a very dangerous period,” another senior Biden administration official said. “Something could happen without warning.”
The consequences of a wider war between Israel and Hezbollah could be devastating, a senior US official said. Hezbollah has an arsenal of rockets and drones that is exponentially larger, more sophisticated and more destructive than Hamas's. Most are short-range missiles, but some can reach deep into Israeli territory with pinpoint accuracy. The IDF estimates Hezbollah has about 150,000 rockets, including thousands of precision-guided munitions.
The likelihood of war continues to grow as prospects for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas fade, the first senior U.S. official said. If a deal is reached, a parallel diplomatic agreement negotiated by U.S. Ambassador Amos Hochstein between Israel and Hezbollah would be put into effect, the U.S. expects.
Hochstein visited Jerusalem and Beirut this week, where he met with senior Israeli and Lebanese officials to push his plan and dissuade both sides from further escalation.
But cross-border attacks between Israel and Hezbollah reached a new high last week, and Israel warned Hezbollah on Tuesday of the prospect of «all-out war» after releasing drone footage.
Israeli officials have told the United States, and the United States agrees, that it has the resources to mount an offensive against Hezbollah if necessary, particularly if its campaign in Rafah in southern Gaza falters, according to officials familiar with the talks. The IDF intends to maintain a presence in Gaza, but its heaviest operations in the enclave will largely end after Rafah, the officials said. Still, U.S. officials do not believe Israel has a credible transition and post-war governance plan for Gaza that would ensure that the enclave does not fall back under militant control if Israel is forced to devote resources to a war with Lebanon.
U.S. officials have not explicitly told Israel that they oppose any attacks on Hezbollah, but they have warned that their actions could lead to a bigger war that neither side really wants, a U.S. official said. Israel has said it could carry out a «blitzkrieg» but the United States has warned it may not be able to guarantee it will remain a limited campaign, the official said.
During Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent trip to the Middle East, he told an Arab counterpart that it appeared Israel was intent on invading Lebanon, according to a person familiar with the meeting.
“It appears they [Israel] are very serious about invading Lebanon,” the person said. The Arab official, the person said, told Blinken that Hezbollah had indicated they would not stop striking Israel until Israel stopped its operations in Gaza.
Israeli officials have told the United States that one of the main goals of their offensive will be to push Hezbollah back, creating a buffer zone between Israel and Lebanon and allowing tens of thousands of Israelis who have been forced to flee their homes in the north by cross-border attacks to return.
As CNN notes, if war is averted and the Hochstein plan goes into effect, Hezbollah would similarly retreat about six miles, or ten kilometers, from the border. But to prevent the group from returning in the future, Israel may want to further disrupt Hezbollah's infrastructure in the area.
The U.S. has been worried for months that Israel might launch an invasion, with intelligence assessments earlier this year indicating it could happen as early as early summer. U.S. officials have also chided Israel for targeting the U.S.-backed Lebanese army rather than Hezbollah facilities.
US officials believe the Israeli government is under growing domestic political pressure to resolve the situation in the north as many Israelis have been forced to flee their homes.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant conducted a quick assessment on Wednesday at the IDF Northern Command, where he said: “We are achieving readiness on land and in the air.”
«We have a responsibility to change the situation in the North and ensure the safe return of our citizens to their homes, and we will find a way to achieve this,» he said, according to his spokesman.
Allies are also deeply concerned about the possibility that other proxy groups could be drawn into a full-scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, multiple sources familiar with the matter told CNN. US officials are particularly concerned about the thousands of American troops in the Middle East who could again be targeted by Iranian-backed proxy groups if Hezbollah, the most feared proxies in Iran, and Israel went to war.
«There are additional concerns about how willing other regional players would be to come to Israel's aid if Israel were to start a larger conflict,» one official explained.
Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said on Wednesday that if war is “forced” on Lebanon, Hezbollah will fight “without rules and restrictions.” He also said that in the event of war, no one would be safe from Hezbollah attacks, including targets in the eastern Mediterranean. More than 1,000 U.S. troops are currently deployed in the eastern Mediterranean to support the military’s Operation Humanitarian Dock.
Nasrallah also warned on Wednesday that Hezbollah could strike Cyprus if the country allows Israel to use its airports and bases to strike Lebanon.
Hezbollah's ground forces are also larger than Hamas's, with the Congressional Research Service estimating between 40,000 and 50,000 fighters. Nasrallah said Wednesday that Hezbollah's fighters actually number «well over» 100,000. Many of them, including the elite Radwan unit, have years of experience fighting in Syria for the Assad regime.
Despite the state of conflict between the two neighbors, the Israeli-Lebanese border has been the calmest it has been in years since the 2006 war, with only occasional cross-border clashes that have ended relatively quickly. But the October 7 Hamas attack has radically changed the status quo between Israel and Hezbollah.
Hezbollah rocket launches and drone strikes have become the new normal in northern Israel, and the IDF is carrying out multiple daily strikes in southern Lebanon. The current fighting, which could have led to war even before October 7, has become too routine, even as the US continues to say that neither side wants the conflict to widen, CNN notes.
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