The Finance Ministry will reduce currency and gold purchases in August by almost five times. The department will allocate slightly more than 24 billion rubles for these purposes within the framework of the budget rule. The daily volume of transactions will exceed 1 billion rubles in equivalent. In July, the Finance Ministry spent more than 5 billion rubles on these purposes every day. On August 5, the Central Bank lowered the official dollar exchange rate, now it is set at a level below 85 rubles. The euro rose to 93 rubles. The yuan is traded on the Moscow Exchange for approximately 11.8 rubles.
How will the Finance Ministry's decision to reduce currency purchases affect the ruble in August? And what factors will influence the exchange rate until the end of the year? Valery Weisberg, Director of the Analytical Department of the Region investment company, believes that the Russian currency will gradually weaken by December-January: «We do not see a significant impact now. There are more important factors related to the payment situation for imports. An increase in the overall supply of currency due to the fact that the Central Bank continues to sell it under other programs, and the Finance Ministry is reducing purchases, will affect the ruble, but overall it is already strong enough to continue moving even higher.
An important factor will be the launch of cryptocurrency settlements in foreign trade from September 1. This may partly reduce the demand for foreign currency. Reducing this speculative demand could help maintain a strong ruble. But again, if the regime is a pilot, and payments under it and trade begin to gradually increase, most likely, demand and the volume of imports itself will be greater than the Central Bank predicted. And this will gradually move the ruble above 85 rubles, maybe 87 rubles. for a dollar. 90 rub. — this is more likely the fourth quarter, but we are unlikely to see such a rate in the next week or month.”
On August 5, the price of Brent oil fell below $76 per barrel for the first time since January. Over the past month, quotes have fallen by $10. Bloomberg attributes this trend to fears of declining demand in the world's largest economies — China and the United States. By the end of 2024, raw materials may still lose value, but are unlikely to fall below $70 without a large-scale crisis in the United States, says Stanislav Mitrakhovich, a senior research fellow at the Financial University: «It is obvious that if the global economy slows down, then less oil is needed. The ruble is linked to the export revenues that Russia receives. Therefore, when they are at risk, the likelihood of devaluation in the Russian Federation increases.
Of course, market players will look at the dynamics of OPEC+ oil production. The cartel is going to increase production by the end of 2024. This has been officially announced and will also affect the price downwards. They will look at consumption not only in the West, but also in China. The situation there may be different, but demand surges are not expected either. All these factors, plus production in America, will affect the cost of oil.
And I would expect a gentle decline, unless some Middle Eastern military risks arise. But, apparently, no oil market player believes in such a development of events yet. We have traded above the price ceiling before, and we will probably do the same now. The price is quite acceptable.»
In the spring, the Ministry of Economic Development reported that the price of Russian Urals oil, which is used to calculate the mineral extraction tax, was set at about $75 per barrel in April, $67 in May, and $69 in June.
According to the Argus agency, discounts on Russian oil fell by $1.5 in July. Urals was trading at the loading port at around $72.
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