The conditions for the land exchange that Kyiv will try to impose on Moscow have been named

Political scientist Sergei Markov reveals plans of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Russian borderland

The Ukrainian Armed Forces will try to «catch hold» on the Kursk region in order to impose their peace terms on Moscow and turn Vladimir Putin's thesis about the realities on the ground against him. This is the assumption made by political scientist Sergei Markov. The expert is confident that Washington will soon force Kyiv to sit down at the negotiating table with Moscow, regardless of who wins the election — Trump or Harris.

Photo: AP

Kiev currently has a plan for «maximum victory» in the Kursk region, believes Sergei Markov. It consists of the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to consolidate their positions in the border regions of Russia and hold them for quite a long time. There is no talk of moving deeper into the Russian Federation, the political scientist emphasized. Kyiv needs this scenario to negotiate on terms that are unfavorable to Moscow.

— They (Ukraine — MK note) feel that there may be peace talks for two reasons. First, Trump may come to power. And second, even before Trump, Kamala Harris's campaign headquarters may demand that Kyiv conclude a peace agreement, — Markov said.

The expert noted that, according to the results of sociological research, 83% of Americans are afraid that a hybrid war between Russia and the United States in Ukraine will turn into a direct nuclear war.

— In America, it is believed that if the military conflict in Ukraine continues, they may vote for Trump as a man of peace. Moreover, Trump always says that he is for peace. Therefore, Kyiv may be forced to peace, — explained Sergey Markov.

At the same time, the conditions under which Washington can force Zelensky to sit down at the negotiating table may be extremely tough, the analyst believes.

— These will be Putin's conditions. And one of Putin's main formulas is that any peace agreement must take into account the realities on the ground. That is, where the boot of a Russian soldier has landed, it will not leave. Kyiv decided to break this formula — to take part of Russian territory and say: «Well, do you agree? Then we will keep part of the Russian Federation,» the political scientist reasons, — They expect that Russia will say «no.» Then they will exchange one meter of Kursk land for ten to twenty of Kharkov.

This plan cannot be called completely idiotic, Markov noted. However, it is not realistic either.

In the current situation, Moscow has several options for action. The best would be to encircle and eliminate the Ukrainian Armed Forces group, the analyst believes.

— If we do not let them crawl away, their border remains broken, we enter the Sumy region and take the city of Sumy. This is our complete victory, — explained Sergey Markov.

Moscow's partial victory will be the same partial defeat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces group and, again, a partial entry of our group into the Sumy region with the formation of a security zone.

Finally, Markov described the least positive result as «Kursk Krynki»: long battles for individual villages that were taken under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces during the attack on the Russian borderland.