New Zealand’s birthrate drops to record low as economic insecurity increases

New Zealand’s birth rate has plummeted to a record low for the 10th year in a row, with demographers suggesting the rising cost of housing, increasing job insecurity and a strained economic environment were contributing to a reluctance to have children.

Data collected by Statistics New Zealand found the birth rate for women of childbearing age has fallen to a record low of 1.63 per woman – far below the 2.1 needed to replace population numbers.

In the year to September 2020, 1,300 fewer babies were born than in the year before, meaning without migration – now nearly non-existent due to closed borders – the country’s population would begin to shrink.

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Kim Dunstan, a senior demographer with Stats NZ, said birth rates in New Zealand had shown a downward trend for more than a decade. In 2020, the greatest drop in births was in women aged 35 and below.

The data was also thought to be influenced by Covid-19, with more New Zealand women returning home from overseas but no more babies being born.

Around one million New Zealanders are thought to live offshore, the second-highest rate in the OECD, but since March thousands have chosen to return home, where life continues relatively as normal compared with many parts of Europe and the US.

The largely highly skilled demographic of returning New Zealanders has been a boon for many industries but has added pressure to the already stretched housing market, with some buying homes sight unseen in preparation for their return.

Despite the much-talked of lockdown baby boom, experts in New Zealand say the strained economic climate was likely to cause would-be parents to delay baby plans instead.

While hundreds of social media posts have been devoted to naming the generation of children born following the pandemic – popular choices include Coronials, Quaranteens and Baby Zoomers – analysts said a baby boom nine months after the lockdown was unlikely.

“Uncertainties like this tend to see delayed fertility because people feel uncertain about the world they’re going to bring a child into,” said Paul Spoonley, a distinguished professor in demography at Massey University. “Those thinking of starting a family will probably put off that decision … I think the urge to delay will be stronger than the inclination to become pregnant, even by mistake.”

Couples who did not already live together had been separated by the lockdown, he added, and opportunities for casual sex had “evaporated”. After the shutdown eased, the country’s economic woes would also dissuade many from having children, Spoonley said.