With the government announcing a roadmap for lifting coronavirus restrictions in England, we look at the scientific underpinnings, advice and evidence behind the changes.
National lockdown worked – but at a price
A national lockdown was always the bluntest yet most effective tool for driving down cases. The first last spring forced R, the reproduction number, down about 75%.
But the clear benefits come at a hefty price. Documents from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) describe how school closures put children at risk of dropping out or being subject to domestic violence and abuse. Slashing social interaction harms the wellbeing, development and mental health of children and adults. Then there is the economic hit, with the poorest bearing the brunt since they are often less able to work from home.
National lockdowns are the last resort for good reason. But if imposing one is a big step, so too is unlocking the country.
Pauses between changes are key
The government’s roadmap includes a gap of about five weeks between each lockdown-lifting step.
This is because it takes up to two weeks for transmission changes to show up in case data, and another couple of weeks for knock-on effects to be seen due to the time it takes for infected people to show symptoms, deteriorate, be hospitalised and in some cases die. “It would take a minimum of three weeks after lifting one set of restrictions to determine whether it is safe to take the next step,” new documents from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) say.
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