Exclusive polling: 1 in 5 swing state voters doubt integrity of the US election

Donald Trump is up for re-election on November 3

One in five voters in key battleground states doubt the integrity of the election, according to new polling for The Telegraph which shows the depth of suspicion at the voting process that has embedded in parts of the electorate.

People in the six states Donald Trump won by the narrowest margins in 2016 were asked if they agreed or disagreed with the statement “I have trust in the integrity of the electoral process in the United States”. 

The proportion of respondents who disagreed or strongly disagreed was 22 per cent in Arizona and Pennsylvania, 20 per cent in North Carolina and Wisconsin, 19 per cent in Michigan, and 16 per cent in Florida. 

The finding suggests that a considerable chunk of voters in the states which will likely determine the race’s result have lost faith with the bedrock of American democracy: the carrying out of free and fair elections. 

The polling was carried out before President Trump and his wife Melania tested positive for coronavirus.

It comes on the back of a drive by the US president to raise the alarm about mail-in voting, which he has suggested in the most vehement terms is wide open to fraud and could lead to a “rigged election”.

Multiple academic studies have found the number of fraudulent ballots submitted by post in past elections to be extremely small. 

Telegraph poll — US voting

The concerns emerged as part of regular polling conducted for this newspaper by Redfield & Wilton Strategies which is tracking sentiment in six battleground states, bringing a deeper picture of the race where it matters. 

The overall picture is that Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, leads Mr Trump in all six states, some by comfortable margins, as the race approaches its final month. 

Mr Biden is two percentage points ahead in North Carolina,  three points ahead in Arizona, five points ahead in Florida and Wisconsin, six points ahead in Pennsylvania, nine points ahead in Michigan. 

If that same result was delivered on election day then Mr Trump would in all likelihood be defeated. 

But, it must be remembered, polls are just a snapshot of voter thinking at a given moment and not a forecast for where it will be on November 3, election day. 

Telegraph poll — Integrity

The finding about distrust in the electoral system is significant because there are concerns that Mr Trump is gearing up for a legal challenge if he suffers a narrow defeat. 

The US president has refused to categorically promise to accept the result, doing so again during his first presidential debate against Mr Biden on Tuesday, and predicted some sort of challenge will end in the Supreme Court. 

The huge increase in mail-in voting expected this year, due to the risk of voting in person because of the coronavirus pandemic, means it could be days before some states declare their results as they open post to count votes. 

Between a third and a half of voters in the six battleground states polled believe it is unlikely the result of who is the next president will be known on election night, a reflection of that reality. 

There are fears that if the race is close Mr Trump could seek to exploit the lack of a definitive result come the day after the election, given he has claimed, with little evidence, that many mail-in ballots will be fraudulent. 

Telegraph poll — trust

Voters in the six battleground states also do not overwhelmingly trust the Supreme Court to come to a fair decision over the outcome of a contested election, another sign of distrust in the process. 

Between 40 and 47 per cent of respondents said they do trust that to happen, less than half. The other respondents were split evenly between not trusting the Supreme Court in those circumstances and not knowing where they stand. 

The polling also reinforced the degree of fear that remains in America about Covid-19. The number of daily cases have begun to rise nationwide for the third time this year. 

A majority of respondents in all six states say they would feel unsafe eating inside a bar or restaurant. Three quarters said they "always" wear a face mask when they shop in a supermarket. 

On whether the coronavirus crisis will be over in a year’s time, however, respondents were split.