New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio does a social distancing elbow bump as he welcomes students returning to school in Queens
Credit: AFP
New York is reporting “concerning” signs of a coronavirus resurgence, which would dash hopes that its high rate of immunity would spare it from a second wave.
The city, which had been the epicentre of the US’s Covid-19 outbreak before it was hailed as a model of containment, was one of the few success stories in a country struggling to get the pandemic under control. However, it is now seeing the most dramatic uptick in daily cases since June.
While numbers in southern and western states have been steadily rising, New York’s positive test rate had for months been holding at around one per cent.
But as one of America’s longest and strictest lockdowns eases, the infection rate in New York has soared to an average of more than 3 per cent and 6 per cent in the "hotspots."
Bill de Blasio, the city’s mayor, announced on Sunday that he intended to “rewind” the reopening in nine neighborhoods that have had a testing positivity rate of more than 3 percent over the last seven days.
Workers wearing a protective masks prepare to open in the outdoor dinning area at the Crown Shy restaurant in New York, US.
Credit: Bloomberg
In those neighbourhoods, the city will curtail indoor dining and close down schools — both of which only restarted last week, as well all other non-essential businesses.
“Today, unfortunately, is not a day for celebration,” Mr de Blasio said. "It will be difficult for people who have done so much to fight back in this crisis.”
If approved by Governor Andrew Cuomo, the plan would go into effect on Wednesday.
Mr Cuomo has been widely praised for his handling of the outbreak, despite recording 23,800 deaths — 7,000 more than the next nearest state, neighbouring New Jersey.
His book American Crisis: Leadership Lessons from the Covid-19 Pandemic, which is due for release next week, has been described as a “powerful testament to true leadership in times of extreme crisis” by the publisher.
Some of the neighbourhoods in Brooklyn and Queens that were hit hardest in March and April are now seeing some of the highest rates of infection, defying some predictions.
Trump supporters gather at a "Triumph Rally" on Staten Island in New York City
Credit: Reuters
Professor William Hanage, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, had said last month that pockets of Brooklyn and Queens, which had recorded the world’s highest rate of antibodies, could have achieved “substantial immunity”.
“There are places where there should be less community transmission in the Fall (Autumn) than there would have been,” he told The Telegraph. However, he said the question of what localised immunity meant for the wider population as a whole is “much more fraught.”
“Even though it’s true the more immunity you have in a population the more bang you get for your buck when it comes to pharmaceutical intervention, if it isn’t distributed there’s only so far it matters.”
New York City has recorded some of the highest rates of immunity in the world.
City-wide, more than 27 per cent of those tested have positive antibody results. The borough with the highest rate is the Bronx, at 33 per cent, while Corona in the borough of Queens recorded a nearly 52 per cent positivity rate.
Over the past two weeks, the case numbers in just nine postcodes have accounted for more than a quarter the city’s cases, despite the fact that the population in those areas make up only seven per cent of the population, according to New York Health Department figures.
According to authorities, the most pronounced jumps have been in neighbourhoods of Brooklyn with significant Orthodox Jewish communities, and have coincided with gatherings for the recent holidays of Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur.
Men, some not wearing masks, shop for for supplies for the festival of Sukkot in the Hasidic Jewish neighborhood of Boro Park in Brooklyn, New York
Credit: Shutterstock
New York has mandated the wearing of face masks in public places, however compliance has been found to be lowest in these areas, including Midwood, where the positivity rate is now approaching six per cent, and Williamsburg, whose numbers are three times the citywide rate.
Health officials were heckled during a recent outreach effort in Midwood.
"Brooklyn is not a Jewish community, we are part of the community," said Steve Zuker speaking in front of the Landaus Shul synagogue.
Mr Zucker, 52, said some people believe they have antibodies and are safe from further infection, using that idea as an excuse not to exercise social distancing.
"You try to provide and do the right thing, and the rest, we believe in God — hopefully he is going to do the right thing," he said.
The city has looked to address the increase by making automated calls in both English and Yiddish.
Mr de Blasio is also sending in police and health workers to the worst-affected areas to promote distancing and mask-wearing, and to issue fines and summons if necessary to anyone refusing to comply.
“We should be concerned any time there is a spike,” Dr Angela Rasmussen, associate research scientist at the Center of Infection and Immunity at the Columbia University School of Public Health, told The Telegraph. “New York has done a pretty good job with testing and messaging about risk reduction, but they should rethink opening bars, restaurants, schools in particular.”
She said one explanation could be that New Yorkers had become complacent, believing they would not see a second wave after such a brutal first one. ”It’s definitely a possibility,” she said. “Based on seroprevalence data, people should take notice that positivity is going up in NYC and that’s something we should all be wary of.”
Mr Hanage also warned that winter — when the virus thrives — could be a dangerous time for America’s most populated city as people crowd together on the underground and indoors in restaurants.
"We cannot go back to normal just yet," he said.
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