First Thing election special: could 2020 be 2016 all over again?

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Will the 2020 presidential election turn out as the polls suggest, with a comfortable Democratic victory similar to Barack Obama’s in 2008? Or will it come down to a disputed photo-finish, as it did for Bush v Gore in 2000? Or will it conclude, just like in 2016, with a poll-defying victory for Donald Trump? “The polls are a mirage,” one Democratic organiser recently told the Guardian. But as Tom McCarthy reports, they paint a rosier picture for Joe Biden than they ever did for Hillary Clinton.

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‘Division and discord’: Biden says Trump’s rallies are ‘spreading more than the virus’ – video

Trump and Biden spent Thursday campaigning in Florida, the swing state that proved decisive for George W Bush in 2000. “If Florida goes blue, it’s over,” Biden told supporters at a rally in Tampa. But in 2020, the election tipping point may instead be Maricopa county, Arizona, as Lauren Gambino and Maanvi Singh report from the Phoenix suburbs.

The number of early votes continue to break records, particularly in Texas. The novelist Laila Lailama argues that people who have the capacity to cast a ballot must do so, on behalf of those who don’t:

Those of us who have the right to vote have a huge responsibility toward those who don’t, including children and young adults, documented or undocumented immigrants, incarcerated or formerly incarcerated people, and citizens who can’t access the ballot for various reasons. Voting is our duty in the social contract, a way to steer the republic in a direction that accurately reflects the will of all its citizens.

• You can get instant election results delivered to your phone next week, with the Guardian’s live-updating app alert. Here’s how to sign up.

Why some leftwing Mexicans are backing Trump

In 2016, with Trump loudly vowing to make Mexico pay for a border wall, it was almost inconceivable that anyone in Mexico would back his presidential bid. But in 2020, he is unusually popular among supporters of the country’s leftist president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who is commonly referred to by his initials.

In fact, the two populist leaders have forged a surprisingly close relationship. “We want President Trump to stay in office. Why? Because there’s good communication between him and President López Obrador,” one Amlo supporter in Mexico City tells David Agren. “They understand each other perfectly because they’re nationalists. They’re nationalist presidents.”

• Why does Trump keep holding mass campaign rallies despite the coronavirus risks? Because he enjoys them – and because they may represent his last, and best, hope of retaining the presidency, writes David Smith.

The steps social media is taking to fight disinformation

In 2016, foreign disinformation campaigns ran rampant on US social media, in an effort many believe tipped the presidential election in Trump’s favor. This year, the same outside threats have been joined by followers of conspiracy theories such as QAnon and the president’s own concerted effort to cast doubt on the election process. Kari Paul explains what the tech platforms have done to combat election disinformation – and asks whether it is enough.

• Facebook has instituted a slew of policies including a ban on content that seeks to intimidate voters or interfere with voting and a moratorium on new political advertising for the week before election day.

• Twitter’s anti-misinformation measures include removing “false or misleading information intended to undermine public confidence in an election”, and a feature that prevents users retweeting articles without having read them.

• YouTube, by contrast, has introduced few new policies related to the election. One expert said the video streaming site is still “sending users down rabbit holes with more extremism”.

In other election news …

• The US is ‘going in the wrong direction’ on Covid-19, Dr Anthony Fauci has warned, as patients overwhelm hospitals across the US and the White House coronavirus taskforce urges more aggressive mitigation measures.

• Unions are discussing the possibility of a general strike should Trump refuse to accept a Biden election victory, with labor federations in New York, Massachusetts and Washington state all approving resolutions to that effect.

• Investigative journalist Glenn Greenwald has resigned from the Intercept, the online outlet he co-founded, claiming its editors sought to censor an article he wrote that was critical of Biden. The site’s editor in chief called Greenwald’s accusations “preposterous”.

Stat of the day

Americans have bought almost 17m guns so far in 2020, more than in any previous year, apparently in response to the months of unrest caused by the coronavirus crisis, mass protests over racial injustice and rising political tensions in the run-up to the presidential election.

View from the right

Biden may have dented his chances in Pennsylvania last week, with his debate answer on “transitioning” the US energy market away from oil. Now, fresh unrest over a police shooting in Philadelphia could throw the key swing state to Trump, argues Amber Athey in the Spectator.

Even if the riots don’t motivate a ton of new voters, they could lower turnout in Philadelphia. This is all Trump, who often dominates in rural counties but struggles in cities, would really need to win.

Don’t miss this

Under Trump, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has systematically dismantled regulations designed to clean up the air, defend waterways from industrial pollution and combat global heating. As Emily Holden reports, four former EPA officials – two Republicans and two Democrats – have recently expressed their frustrations with an administration they say is waging “a war on the environment”.

Last Thing: Brazil’s ‘Trump’ is backing Biden

Miguel Simões Leal, a 49-year-old Brazilian politician, is running for office in the city of Macapá under the name “Trump”. Not because he shares Donald Trump’s politics – “I’d vote Biden,” Leal says – but because he bears something of a physical resemblance to the US president, he tells Tom Phillips: “I’m a bit chubby, 100kg or so. I look a bit like him – although my hair’s real.”

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