Marine Le Pen's National Rally party is seen as the main opposition force in next year's presidential elections
Credit: Charles Platiau /Reuters
Almost half of the French see Marine Le Pen as the “probable” victor of next year’s presidential elections, a new poll suggests, amid signs the “Republican front” to block the far-Right leader at all costs is crumbling.
The opinion poll by Elabe surveyed a cross section of more than 1,000 French voters and found that 43 per cent see her victory against incumbent Emmanuel Macron as “probable” while a further five per cent saw it as “certain”.
The figure was seven percentage points higher than the previous survey six months ago.
With the mainstream Right and Left in disarray in France, Ms Le Pen’s National Rally party is seen as the main opposition force in next year’s presidential elections, the poll found, with the far-Left in second place and the Right-wing Republicans limping far behind in third.
The poll found that 36 per cent of those interviewed said they would “probably” vote for the leader of the anti-immigration party — up two points in six months — in April 2022 ,with the bulk of voter intentions coming from the working class.
More than a third of those intending to vote for her said they intended to plump for Ms Le Pen out of anger towards or opposition against Mr Macron.
Among those who voted for François Fillon, the now disgraced mainstream Right-wing candidate, in the 2017 elections, more than a quarter envisage now voting for Ms Le Pen.
"It’s the highest she has ever been at," said Jean-Yves Camus, a French political scientist specialised in the far-right, while adding that it was "too early to take the polls at face value".
He said Ms Le Pen was benefiting from frustration and anger over the pandemic, with France on the verge of a third lockdown, but also the beheading of a French school teacher by an Islamist last October.
The poll found that Ms Le Pen is seen as stronger than Mr Macron on immigration, security and tackling discrimination and violence against women, but the president beats his rival on employment, France’s place in Europe and the international stage, managing the Covid crisis and the environment.
Macron does not poll as well as Le Pen on violence against women, immigration or security
Credit: REUTERS
The findings came two days after another Harris Interactive survey saw Mr Macron as heading for a repeat victory in a face-off with Ms Le Pen, who he beat in 2017 by 66 per cent to her 34 per cent.
However, this time, the poll found the margin would be far narrower — 53 per cent compared to 47 per cent for the National Rally leader, putting her in striking distance of the centrist.
Worryingly for the Macron camp, it suggested that the so-called “Republican front” which kept Ms Le Pen away from the presidency last time — and her father Jean-Marie in successive elections since 2002 — was almost moribund.
In 2017, most of those who voted for the Socialist and radical-Left Unbowed France candidates in the first round rallied behind Mr Macron in the second.
The Harris poll found that about half of all voters for Left-wing and conservative candidates who are eliminated in the first round would not be willing to do the same this time, however.
On its front page, Libération called such tactical voting effectively dead, citing one disgruntled French voter as saying: “I’ve blocked [the far-Right] in the past and this time it’s over.”
The main gripe comes from Left-wing voters, who view Mr Macron as an arrogant, business-friendly “president of the rich” and are refusing to vote for him.
A poll last month saw Ms Le Pen garnering an even higher 48 per cent of the vote if the election took place today, although Mr Macron would be narrowly re-elected with 52 per cent.
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