Pictured: Wroclaw and the 6th Airborne Brigade. After a period of wilderness, Poland is now booming – and also defending itself. Photo: iStockphoto/Getty/Alex Ugalek; Artur Widak/NurPhoto/Shutterstock
The złoty fell on a visit to Wrocław two weeks ago: Poland is fast becoming the new Central European superpower.
When I visited Poland as the Telegraph's correspondent for Eastern Europe in 1989, its cities were drab, dilapidated and surrounded by hideous communist-era buildings. Stores were empty, expectations were low, and life was hard. However, nowhere in the Soviet empire did people's power triumph so triumphantly as in Poland. The land of lost causes has become the vanguard of freedom — and prosperity.
On its current path, Poland should become richer than Britain by 2030 thanks to the post-communist economic miracle. The country has become a hotbed of promising industries such as battery manufacturing and technology.
Warsaw is using this economic power to turn the country into a formidable fighting force against the Russian wolf at the door. Her willingness to stand up to Moscow has also won allies among many neighboring countries.
While Germany and France tie knots over their reaction to the war in Ukraine, Poland's star is rising.
Warsaw's growing military budget
The growing importance of the country becomes apparent when looking at its armed forces.
Warsaw's plan is to double the size of the army to 300,000 soldiers equipped with the latest Western equipment .
Poland spends about $10bn (£7.9bn) on US-made Himars artillery. battlefield-proven systems in Ukraine is just one example of its significant investment plans.
defense spending will rise to 4% of GDP this year. Photo: Kacper Pempel/Reuters
Similarly, Poland is buying a fleet of F-35 Lightning II aircraft and 116 Abrams tanks, replacing Soviet MiG fighters and T-72 tanks being transferred to Ukraine.
All this military equipment comes at a high price. Poland has increased its defense spending to 4% of GDP this year from 2.5% last year. This makes Warsaw's military budget relatively one of the largest in NATO, and it plans to maintain or even increase this level for the foreseeable future.
Thus, Poland's defense spending will be more than double that of the other major continental NATO members, France, Germany, Italy and Spain, and significantly higher than that of the UK, which aims to reach only 2.5% by 2030. costs.
This means that Poland may soon have the largest and best ground combat capability of any European member of NATO. Even France, with only about 200,000 soldiers on the front line, could soon find itself outnumbered by Poland.
Polish build-up is not only aimed at containing Russia, whose Kaliningrad exclave shares a land border with Poland, but also at providing pressure on Germany to increase its influence in the alliance.
Despite Chancellor Olaf Scholz's promise of a geopolitical Zeitenwende («turning point») when Berlin will increase defense spending, Germany has admitted that it will actually only rise by 0.1% of GDP to 1.6% this year, much lower NATO minimum of 2%.
Poles can be forgiven for feeling insecure and forced to go it alone when it comes to military power.
It is true that the Bundeswehr is now (arguably) stationing Patriot anti-missile batteries in eastern Poland — the first time since 1945 that the Germans had a significant military presence there. But this gesture from Berlin is just a fig leaf to hide the failure. give Ukraine the weapons and ammunition it needs to defeat Putin.
An example of Germany's unwillingness to resist Russian aggression was the scandal over the Leopard 2 tanks. Berlin only agreed to supply these modern battle tanks to Ukraine last January after intense pressure from NATO allies, including a row with the Poles, who threatened to hand over their Leopards to Kiev without German approval.
After all, , Berlin gave permission and Warsaw delivered the tanks in February. The Germans themselves only sent tanks a month later.
Poland's strong support for Ukraine has been evident for a long time and a painful history of invasions. Photo: Darek Delmanowicz/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
From the Poles' point of view, Germany's military weakness and complacency over Ukraine are infuriating, but hardly surprising given the scandalously close relationship of German political and business leaders with Vladimir Putin's regime.
The ruling left-wing coalition in Berlin, led by Scholz , includes its own Social Democratic Party (SPD), which has a long history of appeasing Russia, starting with Gerhard Schröder's role in the Nord Stream project.
The Nord Stream I and II gas pipelines were clearly against the security interests of Poland and Ukraine, but for two decades under Angela Merkel and Scholz the Germans insisted that these strategic networks were purely commercial matters.
Any hint of this is Russian — German cooperation against Poland plays on deeply rooted historical fears, the most obvious of which is the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of 1939, which directly led to invasion and genocide by both the Nazis and the Soviet occupiers.
Sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, Russia's well-armed and fortified exclave of Kaliningrad is a reminder of how this horrific story ended. This Russified slice of pre-war East Prussia, which was recently reinforced by the Kremlin with nuclear weapons, is home to the Russian fleet in winter and exists to stand guard in the Baltic — primarily over Poland.
It is therefore understandable that, when Berlin flirts with Moscow, Chopin's Funeral March is played in Warsaw.
However, not only Warsaw has reason to despair because of the approach of Berlin. Other countries in Central and Eastern Europe are also nervous.
France also does not inspire confidence in this bloc, as Emmanuel Macron appears to be baffled by the increasingly militant Xi Jinping. Macron seems happy to nod along with Beijing's theses, even when his vanguards claim that the countries of the former Soviet Union have no sovereignty.
The lack of leadership from Berlin and Paris has created a gap, and Warsaw is only too happy to fill it.
Polish President Andrzej Duda launched what he called a «diplomatic offensive» earlier this month by visiting Western leaders, to «raise awareness in various parts of the world about what is happening here in our region, about the nature of Russian barbarism.» aggression».
Polish President Andrzej Duda (left) met Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky in Warsaw just last month Photo: AP Photo/Czarek Sokolowski down from the dizzying heights of Wrocław Cathedral's twin towers on a recent visit, the view was breathtaking.
Behind the magnificently restored heart of Wroclaw, with its Gothic cathedral island, the Renaissance Old Town Square and as far as the eye can see, lies the Baroque University Quarter, a modern metropolis of almost 700,000 people.
This view is a microcosm of the traumatic history of Poland, as well as its post-communist economic miracle.
Now Wroclaw, the third largest and second richest city in Poland, is clearly booming. As the capital of Lower Silesia, its proximity to the German, Czech and other lucrative markets has helped it become one of Europe's leading centers for high technology.
Today, Wroclaw has even surpassed pre-war prosperity. Breslau, the German name for the then largest German city east of Berlin.
The standard of living in Wroclaw is already comparable to that in Berlin , Paris and London Photo: Anadolu agency
After the fall of the Curtain Railway, the Poles were the first former Soviet country to restore democracy, free markets and the rule of law. However, they still had to climb the mountain. In 1989, Polish workers had a per capita GDP of only ten times less than their German counterparts.
Three decades of sustained growth has worked wonders. Economic inequality has been drastically reduced. Adjusted for purchasing power parity, GDP per capita in Poland is now £28,200, compared to £35,000 in the UK, £34,200 in France and £39,800 in Germany. At the current growth rate, Poland will overtake the UK by 2030.
Poland's real per capita GDP has more than doubled since the turn of the millennium; By contrast, per capita GDP in the UK, France and Germany grew by 15-24% over the same period
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The truth is that living standards in places like Warsaw or Wroclaw , is already comparable to the standard of living in Berlin, Paris and London.
Indeed, the quality of life of young families is undoubtedly higher. My son and his Polish wife emigrated to her native Wroclaw with two small children a year ago.
They have no regrets. The tax and welfare system supports families by paying PLN 500 (£100) per child each month. My 3 year old grandson attends a great public przedszkole (preschool or kindergarten) for around £50 a month.
One of the reasons for the Anglo-Polish exodus to their homeland is that Poland is still a cheap country. live. Even though inflation there is around 15%, almost double the EU average, most retail prices in Wroclaw are still much lower than in London.
In general, the cost of living in Poland is much lower than in Western countries. Europe. Rent in Wroclaw is about a fifth of what it is in London, for example, and a pint of beer at a bar won't cost you much more than £1.
Not surprisingly, many Poles who moved to the UK or Germany to work after Poland's accession to the EU in 2004 have now returned.
The wage gap, although still significant, has narrowed and the Polish economy now offers opportunities that simply did not exist 20 years ago. According to the OECD, investment has been plentiful and the economy has shifted towards more profitable activities.
Wroclaw, for example, is the main base of South Korean electronics giant LG. Poland recently overtook the US in the production of lithium batteries for electric vehicles. Poland now even has a trade surplus with «world export champion» Germany.
In education, Poland is also doing well. It consistently ranks in the top five or six in reading, math and science out of 38 OECD countries – well above richer countries such as the UK, France or Germany. This lays the foundation for further strong economic growth in the future.
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Poles work hard too, averaging 1,830 hours a year, more than the infamous hard-working Americans, and far more than their British, French or German counterparts.
All this may come as a surprise . While the British still admire Poland, many see it as a poor country to be pitied rather than envied.
One reason for this negative image is that about two million Poles emigrated after the country joined the EU, with about half of them coming to the UK. The mass emigration was partly driven by unemployment at home, which remained consistently high for many years.
However, the image of the poor is hopelessly outdated. After a period of stagnation when the economy was retooled, Poland is now booming.
Much of today's success can be attributed to the free-market reforms of the legendary post-communist finance minister Leszek Balcerowicz in the period immediately after 1989.
Blinking into the world after 40 years of communism in Poland, Balcerowicz was a man with a plan— a new type of plan — to abolish the planned economy.
Balcerowicz's plan was risky, accelerated by Thatcherit shocked the system, but it worked. The big bang opened up Polish business to the world market and it flourished. Before the pandemic hit, Poland boasted the longest period of continuous growth in the world: 28 years.
0705 working hours, Poland
A sign of Poland's resilience is that although the country's economy shrank by 2.4% in the last three months of 2022, it still grew by 4.9% overall last year.
History in Polish politics is always on the surface.
The Germans killed three million Polish Jews during the Holocaust; another three million ethnic Poles were also killed and much of the population was displaced during and after World War II. Memories of this nightmare have now returned with the Russian invasion of neighboring Ukraine.
The war brought a huge influx of refugees. During the year, 11.5 million Ukrainians crossed the border, of which about 1.4 million remain in Poland.
For comparison, Poland accepted almost 10 times more refugees than the UK. However, there is an important difference to keep in mind.
Poland has one of the lowest birth rates and therefore the fastest aging population in Europe. The country needs immigration, but it does not want to accept a large ethnic or linguistic diversity.
Ukrainians fit more easily into Polish society, and many have relatives there. Even before the war, the Polish-Ukrainian border was one of the most porous EU borders.
However, there is one important issue on which Poland resists the interests of Ukraine: grain.
Cheap Ukrainian imports are fiercely opposed. The resistance comes from farmers in Poland and four other EU member states: Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Bulgaria. All but the last one border Ukraine, and all their governments support the farmers.
Protectionism is an article of faith for the populist governments that control this Pole-led bloc. In recent weeks, they have imposed unilateral bans on imports from Ukraine of wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower seeds.
Brussels acquiesced to their demands last Tuesday, legalizing these bans at a cost of at least £160 million to Ukraine, according to the Central Bank of Kiev .
Under an agreement with the EU, the Poles and their partners will allow the supply of Ukrainian grain across the border, but only for re-export to other countries. In times of high inflation, Polish consumers would certainly welcome cheaper bread, pasta and other products, but the agricultural lobby is very powerful. relies heavily on rural voters this fall to win re-election for a third consecutive term.
Political paranoia
It is domestic politics that may prove to be the biggest stumbling block in Poland's aspirations to become a superpower. Law and Justice has been accused of undermining the rule of law and suppressing public debate, and an atmosphere of paranoia has long hovered over the country's politics.
The Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki and President Duda belong to Law and Justice. But Poland's main influencer is the party's chairman and co-founder, Jarosław Kaczynski.
Now 73, Kaczynski prefers the role of eminence grise to high office, but his supporters call him «head of state» — a title still reserved for Marshal Piłsudski, Poland's unofficial ruler in the 1920s.
Poland's main influencer is Law and Justice chairman and co-founder Jarosław Kaczynski. Photo: Petr Novak/Shutterstock
Such echoes of the military past of the strongman naturally alarmed the liberal opposition, led by Donald Tusk, the former president of the European Council.
Tusk and his Civic Platform party consider Law and Justice to be just a reactionary Catholic Kaczynski clique hostile to the European Union and institutions of Polish democracy, including an independent judiciary and a free press.
For his part, Kaczynski sees Tusk and his party as bankrupt heirs of the communist era. His ideology of nationalism, social conservatism, lavish wealth and military might proved popular with poorer voters.
Ironically, both leaders are former members of the Solidarity movement. Kaczynski and his twin brother Lech once worked closely with Lech Walesa, a former electrician who represented Solidarity, led the opposition to communism, and later became president.
Despite his notoriety abroad, persistent accusations of collaborating with the secret police have made Walesa a divisive figure in Poland.
The Walesa case illustrates the toxic role of conspiracy theories in Polish politics. Perhaps the most explosive events have been the death of former President Lech Kaczynski in the 2010 plane crash near Smolensk, which also killed many other members of the Polish elite. As a surviving twin, Yaroslav constantly blamed the Russians for what he considers his brother's murder.
It did not help that the Polish delegation was sent to commemorate the victims of Katyn in 1940. mass murder — the most infamous of the Soviet cover-ups — or that the main leader on the Russian side was none other than Vladimir Putin.
When Kaczynski returned to power in 2016, he ordered a new investigation, which revealed many violations, but did not reveal clear evidence that the accident was sabotage and not an accident.
The instrumentalization of paranoia in Polish politics is largely due to the lack of a tradition of criticism. The main opposition TV channel, TVN, is ultimately owned by Warner Brothers. However, in 2021, the Polish Sejm (parliament) attempted to ban foreigners from owning the country's media.
Ultimately, the White House was forced to intervene to block measures that would deprive Poles of a popular alternative to state media.
History LessonsPerhaps the most serious charge against the government is that it has not only appointed loyalists as judges and prosecutors, but has effectively outlawed opposition lawyers. Getting a fair trial, or any trial at all, is becoming increasingly difficult.
One of the clearest examples of this is the outstanding Anglo-Polish historian Adam Zamoyski. His passport was confiscated and for nearly 18 months he was under investigation without any charges being brought against him. He was de facto deprived of his livelihood, but there is no habeas corpus, which means no right to trial.
is proof of how increasingly difficult it is to get a fair trial, or any trial at all, in Poland. Photo: David Levenson
The irony that the rule of law is threatened by a party calling itself Law and Justice does not escape the attention of many Polish citizens. Trust in the government is only 34.2 percent, partly for this reason. In Poland, this figure is much lower than in the UK, France or Germany.
Once again, history is a useful guide to contemporary Polish politics. In his book Warsaw 1920, Zamoyski shows how Marshal Piłsudski and his Polish Legion saved Europe from Lenin's horde of five million. Their victory began to be called the «miracle on the Vistula».
However, there were also less favorable consequences. Zamoyski explains that after the war, Piłsudski and his veterans tried to eliminate pluralism from Polish public life: «Because they increasingly called for national solidarity to solve every problem, be it economic or political, they contributed to the enmity between ethnic Poles and various minorities, such as Germans, Ukrainians and especially Jews.”
This description of the pre-war Second Polish Republic seems uncomfortably familiar to many who live in today's Third Republic. While Kaczynski, Duda and Morawiecki are by no means anti-Semitic, they are hypersensitive to what they see as attempts by historians to tarnish Poland's reputation. Others consider it normal scientific research.
Reports in the American, British or Israeli media that question Poland's treatment of its Jewish minority, past or present, mistakenly suggest that they have ulterior anti-Polish motives.< /p>
Warts and all, Poland today is still a strong democracy. The Poles have a right to be proud of their republic and its armed forces. But there should be no room for paranoia. They don't need to see Poland as a victim or a martyr.
Whatever the path of Polish politics from here, it's hard to ignore the fact that Warsaw is an approaching power.
Like a miracle on the Vistula a century ago , the Polish economic miracle is an outstanding achievement. It's time for Europe to sit down and take notice.
Additional report by Eir Nolse
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