Rishi Sunak could become the first prime minister to lose three seats in a day

Danny Beals is campaigning for Labor at the former Boris Johnson building in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, where Sir Keir Starmer's party was held, expected to win upcoming extras elections. Credit: Karl Court/Getty Images

Rishi Sunak could become the first prime minister to lose three parliamentary seats in a day as a looming triple by-election creates another headache for the Conservatives.

Boris Johnson provoked a vote in Uxbridge and South Ruislip after immediately leaving Parliament last week, saying that a House of Commons inquiry decided to find him guilty of violating the partygate.

Nadine Dorris and Nigel Adams, two of the most staunchest Johnson's supporters also relinquished their Mid-Bedfordshire seats and Selby and Ainsty.

Each by-election will take place within three weeks after Simon Hart, head of the Conservative Party, “postpones the writ” to confirm that they will take place.

Mr. Hart is expected to do so this week, meaning it is likely that all three by-elections could take place on the same day.

Lord Hayward, fellow Conservatist and scholar, said that the Tories would want to get them “as fast as possible to get their ways out” ahead of the summer break starting July 20.

While the polls have tightened under Mr. Sunak, the by-elections are nonetheless less, represent a challenge to the Conservatives, who continue to be 10-15 points behind Labour.

Poll: Intention to vote in the general election

The Tories therefore, according to the analysis of the latest constituency-level poll by Focaldata and Best for Britain, both Selby and Ainsty and Uxbridge and South Ruislip should lose to Labor.

Conservative support could be more than halved from 60% to 28%, marking their first loss in Selby and Ainsty since 2010, when the seat was created and Mr Adams became MP.

Selby and Ainsty has long been considered a safe haven for Tories and is mostly located in the countryside between York, Wetherby, Harrogate and Pontefract.

Traditionally a shipbuilding town on the banks of the River Ouse, but now its economy is largely based on food production, agriculture and power generation.

Uxbridge, which merged into Ruislip. – Northwood in 2010 has not been elected as a Labor MP since 1966.

Triple threat in by-elections: Conservative MPs who left parliament are growing ethnically diverse, mostly South Asians, and home to many professionals traveling for work. The recent opening of the Elizabeth Line is likely to make it even more attractive to passengers.

Uxbridge and the surrounding villages are also influenced by the nearby Brunel University.

Labour has already chosen Danny Beals, a Camden councilor who knows Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer, as their candidate.

The Liberal Democrats elected “staunch environmentalist” Blaise Bakish.

If UK Reform, Richard Tice's centre-right party decides not to participate in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, the Conservatives will be on their way to victory. However, Mr Theis gave no indication that this would happen.

Professor Sir John Curtis, one of Britain's leading experts on polling, denounced Tory hopes of retaining all three seats in the dispute.

“Boris will be part of the background, but Boris and Liz Truss have long been part of the background of the current Conservative position,” he said.

Sir John called Uxbridge and South Ruislip “a lost cause for Mr Sunak, noting that it would take just seven percent for Labor to change hands, while the country's current swing is projected to be 13 percent. p>

Projections also show the Tories will retain Mid-Bedfordshire, where party chairman Greg Hands campaigned over the weekend, with a greatly reduced majority to just 2.5%, down from 38% in the 2019 election.

“As chairman of the party, I'm looking forward to it!”

Today, here in Flitwick, Bedfordshire, there is a Day of Action for hundreds of local and national Conservatives in connection with the upcoming by-elections.

195 additional policemen delivered to Bedfordshire! #VoteConservative pic.twitter.com/9q6XN25szg

— Greg Hands (@GregHands) June 11, 2023

“If both opposition parties try to fight hard, it could be the Tories' salvation,” Sir John said. .

“Middle Bedfordshire is perhaps the easiest to save. If the Tories are lucky, they will lose their former place of Boris and hold on to the other two, although perhaps not by much.

Middle Bedfordshire is seen as a key target for Labour, but Sir Ed Davey, leader of the Liberal Democrats, has also bid his party for the seat with a visit on the topic of sewage on Monday.

Sir Ed will say: “Medium Bedfordshire will be a close race between the Liberal Democrats and the out-of-world Conservative Party. From skyrocketing mortgage rates to NHS waiting lists and river sewage, this conservative government takes people for granted.”

While most people currently expect Sir Keir to become next prime minister, the director of More In Common suggested that the results of the by-election would reveal the true extent of the strength or weakness of the opposition.

“If Labor is on the path to big swings, 1997 style, they will win the Selby. If they don't quite win, that suggests they may not be on their way to such a wild swing,” he said.

“And if they don't win Uxbridge, then they're definitely not on track to drive the Tories out of government.”