Members of the Wagner Group return to base after the Russian coup is canceled Photo: Anadolu Agency Wagner group's coup d'état could thwart its further serious military offensive in Ukraine, analysts said Sunday evening.
While the head of the mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, ordered his fighters to return to forward bases, doubts about the loyalty of the 25,000th contingent is likely to limit their use in the future by the high command of the Russian armed forces.
Ben Hodges, a former US General, said that even if the Wagner units were broken up and distributed to the rest of the Russian armed forces, the commanders of the regular armies are unlikely to fully trust them.
“Wagner troops will either leave or be distributed by the Russian army as separate replacements who will be under suspicion,” he wrote on Twitter.
Under the terms of the truce that forced Prigozhin to call off his coup attempt on Saturday, the Wagner troops involved in the mutiny will be granted immunity from prosecution and others will be allowed to sign formal contracts with the Russian army.
However, it is not clear how many they want to accept the offer — or whether the Russian army commanders really want to see them in their ranks.
“The whole story of the coup still seems very hazy, but it means that many soldiers have now lost faith in their central command,” said Daniel Ridley, a former British soldier who runs the Trident Defense Initiative, a private training program for Ukrainian forces.
«Now we may never see another joint Russian offensive, and what territories Russia still has in Ukraine they may now struggle to hold.»
Troops Wagner participated in the hardest fighting of the war, especially in the grueling 10-month battle around the city of Bakhmut in the Donbass, which the Kremlin called one of its few victories.
While Mr. Ridley said most of these fights were carried out by former imprisoned Wagner recruits, who died by the thousands, the hardcore group of professional soldiers remains largely intact, Mr. Ridley said.
It was their ranks, he added, and not those ex-prisoners who apparently led the coup attempt in Russia.
Professional kit
“You could see that they had professional equipment and they looked good – they were not detachments of prisoners,” he said. “They are not at all exhausted, otherwise they would not have attempted a coup d'état at all.”
He added that the professional experience of this group played a decisive role in Russia's advancement around the Donbass. cities such as Bakhmut and Soledar. However, their successes also boosted morale, causing them to see themselves as separate from the Russian regulars.
“These people are loyal to Wagner, it’s a pretty well-known unit now,” he said. “They will not casually drop a Wagner patch to sign up for the Russian Ministry of Defense.”
In and around Bakhmut, where Wagner troops know the area well, the Kremlin will still likely have to use Wagner’s power in one way or another. form. “They are willing to take losses, and they are also very aggressive,” added Mr. Ridley.
However, Russian army commanders are probably now afraid that if they send Wagner troops to any or costly battles, they may risk a mutiny in the ranks that could provoke a repeat of the Sabbath uprising.
Свежие комментарии