Alexander Lukashenko survived, but next to a wounded Russia, he is on dangerous ground. EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
«The end of Prigozhin, and now we hear that his mercenaries should also be absorbed by the Belarusian army — this creates great risks for him.»
Lukashenko is a survivor, with a very clear understanding which side of his bread is buttered.
Ever since he accepted Putin's help in a gangster crackdown on a pro-democracy uprising in 2020, his power rests on just two pillars. : his own security services and the backing of the Kremlin.
He is well aware that the fall of Putin will almost certainly prove fatal to his own regime in Minsk. However, the price of preventing this — placing Prigozhin in exile — is fraught with danger in itself.
Lukashenko and his eldest son Nikolai enjoy the loyalty of the Belarusian security services, largely due to their monopoly on the distribution of wealth and other privileges.
The arrival of Prigozhin, a billionaire who paid people to fight, may well destabilize the situation. It is unclear whether the former Wagner fighters will be controlled.
Putin may even use the presence of mercenaries integrated into the Belarusian army to pressure Minsk to officially send Belarusian troops to fight in Ukraine – something Lukashenka avoids because he knows how unpopular it will be.
He did this. already had to agree to Russia launching an invasion from its territory, and now must host Russian nuclear weapons.
Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the democratically elected president, who had to go into exile after Lukashenko suppressed protest movement of 2020, said in a statement Tuesday that Putin and Lukashenko are turning Belarus into a “Russian colony.”
as he relates, Lukashenka first persuaded Putin not to do anything rash [like beating up Prigozhin] and then convinced Prigozhin that his campaign against Moscow should stop.
Prigozhin, who spoke only with Lukashenka, and then mostly in obscene words, reluctantly. According to him, he and his people wanted justice. Lukashenka realized that the rebellious mercenary suffered a psychological breakdown after several months of war.Putin looks like a lone figure in the Kremlin. Photo: SPUTNIK/REUTERS
So, the dictator told the frank truth.
«I said: «You know what, you can do what you want. But don't be mad at me. Our brigade is ready to be transferred to Moscow. And as in 1941 (you read books, you are an educated, intelligent person), we will defend Moscow.”
“Because this situation is not only in Russia. And not only because it is our Fatherland. But because if, God forbid, this turmoil spreads throughout Russia (and the prerequisites for this were colossal), then we will be next. civil war in Russia — if they agreed to go at all — is another matter. But for the most part, he's right: Chaos in Moscow could eventually lead to problems in Minsk.
There's another reason why Lukashenka should be worried.
The Wagner mutiny showed how a group of determined armed men can pose a much greater threat to dictators who effectively suppress peaceful protests.
Lessons for the Belarusian opposition
This is a lesson that some Belarusian opposition activists will be more than willing to learn.
“We have a reserve in Belarus — military and civilians who are ready to liberate Belarus from occupation,” the Belarusian volunteer detachment named after Kastus Kalinouski, who is fighting on the side of Ukraine, says in a statement. The rebellion broke out on Saturday. “Soldiers, reservists, Belarusians, wait for our signal.”Ms. Tikhanovskaya made a similar call to the Belarusian army to “throw the Russian military out of our country.”
Lukashenka’s overthrow may occur not tomorrow. But the regiment of Kastus Kalinovsky has from several hundred to several thousand people in the field. Over the past 16 months, they have gained serious combat experience.
If Wagner can go along the M4 to Moscow, then the guys from Kalinovsky can easily go along the M1 to Gomel. From here it is only a few hours drive to Minsk.
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