Mexican soldiers destroy an illegal coca leaf processing lab during an operation in the mountainous region of Atoyac de Alvarez Municipality, Guerrero State, Mexico. March 2, 2023 Photo: ALFREDO ESTRELLA/AFP
On a remote farm in the foothills of Mexico's Sinaloa Mountains, members of one of the world's largest drug trafficking organizations have gathered to discuss their golden goose.
On a hot May day last year, Ovidio Guzmán López, who inherited the powerful Sinaloa cartel from his father El Chapo, surrounded by 40 machine gunners and six armored trucks, admitted a «bad» batch of fentanyl could kill a consumer, as evidenced by the deaths of several of their chefs after they tried their products.
But the conversation quickly turned to the logistics of getting the drug to Los Angeles and getting paid in Mexico City, according to a recent indictment against drug lords. This was part of the cartel's master plan to flood the United States with hard drugs and, as one of the leaders, Ivan Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar, described, to supply «junk streets».
Ovidio Guzmán López took over the Sinaloa Cartel from his father, the infamous El Chapo. Photo: FBI/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock
As a strategy, this strategy has been extremely successful, bringing in hundreds of millions of pounds and helping the criminals get stronger. their power over Mexico. But with over 100,000 Americans dying of overdoses each year, fighting the cartels and the constant flow of fentanyl into the US has become a Republican campaign promise.
This is by no means a new idea. During his presidency, Donald Trump asked his then Secretary of Defense Mark Esper about the possibility of launching missiles into Mexico to «destroy drug labs.» Mr. Esper described how he spoke diplomatically with Mr. Trump.
The subject of the election
However, the strategy has been re-energized by 2024 candidate Ron DeSantis, who last week doubled down on a promise to send special forces to Mexico to fight the cartels — essentially starting a war with the U.S.'s closest neighbor — «on the first day» of his presidency. Three other candidates — Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott and Nikki Haley — also supported the idea, along with the likes of former Attorney General Bill Barr.
Worried about the growing momentum, Democratic representatives are scrambling to make an amendment. to a 2024 Department of Defense bill that would secure a congressional vote on military action in Mexico. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez called Mr. DeSantis' statements «so reckless it's hard to even catch them,» while Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador called them «pure publicity» and «cheap politicking.»
The solution is also, unsurprisingly, not so simple. Cartels supply fentanyl precursors from China and then prepare them in laboratories throughout Mexico. The drug, which is 50 times stronger than heroin, is then mixed into everything from counterfeit prescription pills to cocaine to get as many users on the hook as possible before being smuggled into the US through everything from cars and drones to underground tunnels. .
Homeless people hang out in a wasteland in Mexicali, where they live in cardboard boxes. Almost all heroin and methamphetamine in Mexicali contain traces of fentanyl, resulting in a high death rate among drug addicts. Photo: Carolyn Cole/Getty Images
Meanwhile, the cartels have become even more powerful, entwining their tentacles around every aspect of Mexican life, including illegal fishing, logging, the wildlife trade and social life. They also became more brutal, blatantly torturing and killing civilians, said former Mexican Ambassador to the United States Marta Barcena Kochi.
«How Europe is bombing Morocco»
But U.S. military action would be «a complete violation of international law» and «create a catastrophe,» she added, revealing decades of work to strengthen what is arguably Washington's most important bilateral relationship. She said that while Americans have «legitimate concerns,» given the number dying citizens, cooperation will be required to solve this problem.
She told The Telegraph: «It would be like stepping back into the 19th century … into the realm of enemies.» She compared the proposed solution to Europe's decision to bomb Morocco to stop the marijuana trade. Considering that nine out of ten people arrested for fentanyl trafficking are US citizens, she also asked if the Republicans were planning to «bomb their own» people. Any military action is also likely to trigger mass migration from Mexico to the US, which Mr. DeSantis and his colleagues will certainly not approve of. «/>Mexican soldiers destroy and burn marijuana plants on a two-hectare plot of land during an operation in Poncitlán, Jalisco state, Mexico, in April. 14, 2023 Photo: AFP/ULISES RUIZ Drone strikes
Wanda Felbab-Brown, director of the Brookings Institution's Non-State Armed Actors Initiative, said that while she thinks military mobilization is unlikely, she thinks it's «highly possible» that the Republican government will designate the Mexican cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs). The idea, which was considered by Barack Obama during his administration, would give the US far-reaching power and allow drone strikes on Mexican soil.
According to her, this would be «toxic and explosive» and would make cooperation impossible. Meanwhile, «a unilateral military strike could easily take us back to the most disgusting abbess of security non-cooperation since the death of DEA agent Kiki Camarena,» she said. But Ms. Felbab-Brown was more sympathetic to the frustration of Republicans calling for action against cartels that are «devouring Mexico alive.» Mr. López Obrador «has given up on any meaningful law enforcement action against the cartels,» she said.
I don't think a military tool is effective and will have really bad consequences. as far as relationships… the Mexican government is incredibly oblivious to the fact that Mexican crime gangs kill 100,000 Americans in the US every year.» While the US has «good information,» the Mexican government is taking no action, she said. According to her, even when the government raids a lab, the criminals just scatter and create another one.
“What is really necessary is to catch people around the lab and interrogate them without torturing them to get information about the rest part of the network,” she said. Then, she added, «you can create a picture of the network and dismantle as much of the average operating level at work as possible.»
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