Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman participates in the diplomatic tug-of-war between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping over nuclear power
It was by far the most a lavish ceremony for a foreign leader in recent years, including artillery salutes, an escort of fighter jets, and a parade of Saudi Royal Guard swordsmen.
When Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman led Xi Jinping through the white walls, In the golden halls of Al Yamamah Palace, he was even rewarded with a rare smile from the typically stern Chinese president.
This rich reception in December 2022, much warmer than the one given five months earlier for President Joe Biden, was quickly talked about in Washington that Beijing is trying to usurp their status as the most powerful ally of this Persian Gulf state.
But the full extent of the Sino-American rivalry with Saudi Arabia only became apparent last week when it emerged that Beijing was seeking to undermine Biden's position by offering the Saudis a cheaper and more attractive nuclear power program.
China's bid to build a nuclear power plant in the Kingdom is being scrutinized by Saudi officials, who have spent years lobbying the US for nuclear assistance with little progress. — any ambition to acquire nuclear weapons, although some states in the region, especially Israel, fear that this may appear on the horizon.
It is important to note that China's proposal contains none of these. Conditions sought by the US, such as Saudi Arabia's ban on enriching its own uranium stocks or the development of uranium deposits on Saudi soil, are two processes necessary to produce nuclear weapons.
This also happens when Saudi Arabia contemplates this. an offer to join the Russian-friendly BRICS trade group, which currently includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
Accepting any offer would heighten suspicion that Saudi Arabia may be moving away from its traditional role a staunch pro-Western ally in the Middle East.
Those familiar with Saudi Arabia's strategy say it has become clear. that the crown prince is eager to take advantage of being embroiled in a major diplomatic tug-of-war between the two superpowers.
Trying to «troll» Mr. Biden
Sir John Jenkins, a veteran British diplomat and former ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said that it is entirely possible that Saudi officials were trying to «troll» Biden by revealing details of the China proposal to the Wall Street Journal last week.
“Given that relations with Washington DC have cooled for structural reasons, what is there not to like [from the Saudi perspective]?” He said. “With regard to nuclear power, since they have recoverable uranium reserves, although their amount is debatable, it makes sense to produce energy with nuclear power. Each additional barrel of oil exported and not consumed domestically, at a fraction of the world price, represents a net profit.”
Sir John, a Middle East analyst at the Policy Exchange think tank, added: “I think they would prefer the US build a nuclear power plant. This would be of higher quality and would give the US an additional interest in the stability of the Kingdom. So it's kind of a troll. But that will only work if Washington believes that China is a viable alternative.”
Saudi officials have indeed suggested that they would prefer a US-led nuclear power program, with a South Korean contractor backed by US expertise being one option.
Although the state-owned China National Nuclear Corporation's offer is 20 percent cheaper, Saudi Arabia remains heavily dependent on U.S. arms imports such as fighter jets.
Crown Prince Mohammed has also signaled he wants to forge an even deeper defense partnership with Washington, but that goal could be stranded. if it is considered too pro-Chinese.
The situation is further complicated by the ongoing intense round of talks led by Washington on a potential agreement to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which could be signed within a year. US nuclear assistance is considered one of the key conditions for Saudi Arabia to participate in these negotiations, along with major concessions from the Israeli government in resolving the conflict with the Palestinians.
Bringing nuclear power into play A broader diplomatic game between Israel, Saudi Arabia and the US could prevent China from persuading Riyadh to move closer to its approach to providing a power plant.
If an agreement to normalize relations with Israel were reached, it would be the biggest diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East in a generation. However, sources familiar with the position of Saudi Arabia on the negotiations say that, whatever agreements were reached on the nuclear dossier, there has been little progress in the negotiations on the Palestinian issue.
Inside the kingdom, China's bid is reported on the construction of nuclear power plants is seen as a sign that the crown prince simply wants to keep all his options open in order to maximize his influence.
Saudi Arabia does not prefer to move away from Washington, and the Saudis value American technology. However, it is important to consider that international relations are complex and multifaceted,” said Mohammed Alhamed, Saudi affairs analyst and president of the Saudi Elite consulting group.
“While Saudi Arabia may be exploring cooperation with China, this does not necessarily indicate a complete shift in their relationship with the United States, especially in the area of security partnerships,” he added.
Reputation as a young modernizer
At the age of 37, the crown prince fought hard to establish a reputation in Saudi Arabia as a young modernizer: a ruler who allows women to drive cars and who builds futuristic multi-million dollar megacities like the Neom project.
But his reputation is beyond abroad was severely tarnished by the 2018 assassination of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, as well as a wider crackdown on domestic dissent. The crown prince categorically denies that he personally ordered the assassination and instead blames fraudulent Saudi agents.
Five years later, the crown prince has largely managed to shed his pariah status by hosting Biden last summer in Riyadh. . He is also due to pay a state visit to London this fall.
Whichever side the crown prince ultimately chooses in the nuclear tug-of-war, it reflects how much he has become a highly desirable partner. in the Middle East after years in the wilderness.
«I suspect the US should be the front-runner for the partnership, but it all underscores the speed of change in the region,» said Alistair Burt, a former British representative for the Middle East. Minister for the East and expert on Saudi affairs.
“The KSA [Kingdom of Saudi Arabia] is at the helm, acting in its own interests. Of course, this means that choices must be made, and this responsibility is more difficult than simply following the old decision-making pattern that what was best for the US was almost axiomatically best for Saudi Arabia.”
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