Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin Photo: REUTERS
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Joining the podcast today is Atlantic Council Senior Fellow Joseph Webster, who specializes in energy geopolitics. Through his work, he noticed a significant amount of trade in ball bearings through Central Asia and charted that path:
So you hear a lot of discussion about «cutouts,» where Chinese exports don't necessarily go directly to Russia. but they are sent through intermediate countries such as Turkey, for example, Central Asia, such as Belarus.
One of the most interesting trade patterns we see involves Kyrgyzstan, a Central Asian country with historically close ties. with Russia. There are a lot of Russian speakers there, [and it] also borders China.
What surprises me is that Chinese exports of ball bearings to Kyrgyzstan have increased by about 2550% compared to 2021 levels. And ball bearings are important because they are used to separate the two rings of a bearing, reducing friction and carrying loads. They are useful for both railway cars and military tanks.
He continues, revealing the reasons for this increase:
Perhaps there is some reason in the domestic market of Kyrgyzstan why imports from China have increased so sharply. However, it is more likely that these imports from China are simply transferred to Russia, and Russia uses these ball bearings to produce tanks and railway cars.
And on the Russian market. ball bearings were a key obstacle to Russian tank production. And while there is no direct trade of these ball bearings from China to Russia, it is likely that Central Asia plays a role in helping to facilitate Sino-Russian trade and, in particular, indirect Chinese exports to Russia.
< p>Commenting on the broader trend of this activity:
You do see that most trade is routed through third countries. Some goods that might be shipped to, say, Belarus from China end up in Russia and then disappear. In fact, they never reach Belarus.
So while on paper it may be considered an export to Belarus, in reality it will be used in the Russian economy and directly or indirectly support Russia's military efforts. China is doing a lot directly and indirectly to facilitate the invasion.
Dmitry Medvedev, second from left, Accompanied by the Russian Presidential Envoy to the Ural Federal district Vladimir Yakushev (left) visits the Uralvagonzavod plant in Nizhny Tagil, Russia. Photo: AP
When asked about the relationship between China and Russia and that relationship through the lens of the war in Ukraine, Joseph responds:
It is very difficult to understand both of these regimes and their relationship with each other because they are two autocracies. They are not very transparent, and the same is true here. However, we see that China is very sensitive to how it is perceived in Europe, partly because Europe is an important economic and technological partner.
The Chinese government supports the Russian invasion in various ways. There was informational support, there was also economic support, which can be debated even before the start of the conflict and to this day.
But the Chinese government is also mindful of its presence in Europe, how it is perceived in Europe. And so they are trying to somehow manage the optics of this trade with Russia.
Listen to Ukraine Breaking News, The Telegraph's daily podcast, using the audio player at the top of this article or on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or yours Favorite podcast app.
The war in Ukraine is changing our world. Every weekday, The Telegraph's leading journalists analyze the invasion from all angles — military, humanitarian, political, economic, historical — and tell you everything you need to know to stay informed.
Our< Strong> Ukraine: The Latestpodcast is your trusted source for the latest analysis, live reactions and on-the-ground reporting from correspondents. We have been broadcasting since the very beginning of the full-scale invasion.
Ukraine: Regular contributors to The Latest are:
David Knowles
David is head of audio development at The Telegraph, where he worked for almost three years. He reported from all over Ukraine during the full-scale invasion.
Dominic Nicholls
Dom is deputy editor (defence) at The Telegraph, having joined in 2018. He previously served in the British Army for 23 years in tank and helicopter units. He had operational deployments to Iraq, Afghanistan and Northern Ireland.
Francis Dearnley
Francis is assistant comment editor at The Telegraph. Before working as a journalist, he was chief of staff to the Chairman of the Prime Minister's Policy Council in the Houses of Parliament in London. He studied history at Cambridge University and in the podcast reveals how the past sheds light on the latest diplomatic, political and strategic events.
They are also regularly joined by The Telegraph's foreign correspondents around the world, including Joe Barnes(Brussels), Sofia Yang (China), Natalia Vasilyeva (Russia), Roland Oliphant (Senior Reporter) and Colin Freeman (Reporter). Also in London are Venice Rainey (foreign weekend editor), Katie O'Neill (assistant foreign editor) and Verity Bowman(news reporter) ). appear frequently to offer updates.
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