Scotland lost to South Africa in their opening game but showed promising signs against the reigning world champions. Photo: Getty Images/Michael Steele
In some ways, Scotland's pool schedule looked well organised; or as good as such a brutal draw could be given.
The theory was that they could break out of the gate and ambush South Africa in Marseille before the two-week break. After that, matches against Tonga and Romania represented a steady boost for Ireland, a second chance to hedge against defeat by the Springboks.
Well, the defeat to South Africa at the Stade Velodrome means Scotland needs that safety net. And with Ireland having won 12 of the last 13 meetings between the sides, it would seem Gregor Townsend's men are on the wing and praying when they join action this weekend in Nice. Of course, there is no more room for error. Even three wins may not be enough to continue if other results are not favorable. For Stuart McInally, brought in to replace Dave Cherry after he tripped down the stairs and suffered a concussion, it's a «last roll of the dice» in more ways than one. At the end of the tournament, the prostitute retires to become a commercial airline pilot.
As difficult as their situation was, Scotland had to find strength from different aspects of their 18-3 defeat to the Springboks. The 15-point difference did not reflect the defiance of their forwards in the first half. Scotland awarded two penalties in the scrum from South Africa. Only once since the last World Cup, when they conceded three goals to Ireland in Dublin a year ago, have the Springboks conceded more in one game. South Africa also surrendered two mauls. You have to go back to 2018 when England won in Cape Town, the last time they lost three times.
Ultimately it was the Springboks' burst of power early in the second half and Manie Libbock's careless strike from Curt's pass that proved decisive. Lee Arendse's failure allowed South Africa to break away. And yet, the picture of the match could have been completely different.
For much of the day, Scotland sought to beat their opponents' defensive lineout jumpers by moving to the tail or on top, with varying degrees of success. They lost four of their 17 shots, putting them out of a promising position. However, one such move should have resulted in a try. On the half-hour mark, George Turner sent the ball over the 15-metre line straight to Sione Tuipulotu.
Ben White rounded his inside center and passed to Finn Russell, who could release Darcy Graham on the line opposite the blindside. South Africa's blitz defense was compromised and completely destroyed, with Jesse Kriel and Arendse firing at the same time and being repulsed. Graham sold the dummy to Damian Willems but was knocked down by the scrambling Libbock, leaving Blair Kinghorn and Doohan van der Merwe unmarked to his left.
Scotland missed a chance
Individual screenshots never do justice to the high-octane drink. moment, although Scotland would have been in the game if Graham had given Van der Merwe a cutaway pass:
Photo: AP/Pavel Golovkin
After the final whistle, Jamie Ritchie bemoaned missed chances and Huw Jones suggested Scotland could have been more patient. South Africa attacked the outside central channel with an aggressive defensive press, flooding it to cut off Russell's options. Townsend said Scotland defended bravely but «didn't get involved in the game». Nothing frustrates teams more than feeling like they haven't taken a single shot.
A win-or-bust scenario requires tactical conviction. Scotland have not deservedly reached fifth place in the world rankings due to their timidity, although they will want to play as smartly as they did against South Africa to control the territory. Ireland made eight tries past Tonga using sharp kicks and high ruck speed. Six of those tries came from lineouts, so Scotland have to favor clearer possession. Richie Gray, a veteran of the castle, vowed to fix the situation.
Another goal should be to obtain clinical benefit from breaks and half-breaks, which are usually a strength. Scotland are certain to watch Ireland's crunch clash with South Africa on Saturday night before taking on Tonga the following day. Another win for the Springboks would add some weight to Townsend's men. An Irish win would likely leave Scotland having to overturn a significant points difference in their final pool game on October 7.
In any case, Scotland can only cope with one obstacle at a time. Vaea Fifita, Tonga's sole scorer against Ireland, is one threat that must be contained. Pita Aki and Malakai Fekitoa are the muscular centers, while Charles Piutau has accounted for 90 of Tonga's 256 linear meters at fullback.
The tournament schedule included a long break for Scotland and left them out of the picture after the opening weekend. However, do your best and they can give notice of their intention to compete for a place in the quarter-finals.
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