For Rishi Sunak, the decision to continue with the controversial Rosebank oilfield development is likely to be one of the few positive notes at the Conservative Party's annual conference. which begins in Manchester this weekend.
Both Mr Sunak and Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho are expected to tout the plans as a boost to Britain's offshore industry in their conference speeches. its energy security and energy transition.
Environmentalists see things very differently.
For them, Rosebank is an oil field too far away that will likely still be operating in 2050, the date by which the UK has pledged to reach net zero. By then Rosebank's oil and gas will have produced around 225 million tonnes of CO2.
The figures sound bad and they have put Rosebank at the center of political debate over how Britain can achieve its target of net zero by 2050 , while keeping lights on and factories and transportation systems running.
The government insists the project meets the UK's climate targets. Rosebank emissions will be offset by the closure of older oil fields, with operators expected to rely on clean energy to drill and transport oil.
Emissions 2809 biz c02
North Sea oil already has a lower carbon content. environmental footprint than crude oil imported from places such as the Middle East or Africa, and Wood Mackenzie analysts claim the development of Rosebank and nearby Kambo will save 17 million tonnes of CO2 emissions over its projected life compared with an equivalent amount of imported oil and gas
For most Conservatives, Rosebank has become a touchstone for business support and energy security. Following the announcement, Coutinho praised the project for the jobs it is likely to create.
However, for Ed Miliband, Labour's shadow energy secretary, Rosebank's endorsement was «climate vandalism».
The political advertising ignores the fact that Rosebank is actually a fairly small oil field by world standards, containing a maximum of 500 million barrels of recoverable oil.
Compare this with monsters such as the Ghawar field in Saudi Arabia — the largest in the world — with reserves of 70 billion barrels. Or West Qurna in Iraq, whose reserves are estimated at 21 billion barrels.
Rosebank's daily oil production will peak at around 8,370 tonnes per day, equivalent to 5% of the UK's daily oil consumption. In other words, Rosebank's total lifetime production will meet UK demand for around seven months.
2809 production growth
A similar story is being seen for gas, with Rosebank peaking at around 1.39 million cubic meters in day around 2029. This corresponds to just 0.7% of the UK's daily needs.
By comparison, the North Sea's Brent field has produced 3 billion barrels of oil since 1975, at least six times more than Rosebank. Since the 1970s, the Fortis field has produced 2.6 billion barrels and has a lifespan of 20 years.
The UK consumes around 61 million tonnes of oil and petroleum products annually, including petrol, diesel, aviation and petroleum products. marine fuel.< /p>
About 80% of these petroleum products have to be imported. Events like Rosebank won't change that. Why? Because the UK no longer has enough refineries to process its own oil or meet its own needs.
For the same reason, the predicted 80-90% of Rosebank oil will have to be exported — there is none in the UK. ability to cope with it.
Most of the oil will go to refineries in Europe, but some may return to the UK as a finished product. However, the jobs, investment and profits associated with this refining process will remain overseas.
2809 current energy import business
Rosebank is expected to create around 1,600 jobs at the height of construction, followed by 200 to 300 long-term workplaces after commissioning.
This is quite trivial from an employment point of view, then. Equinor, the lead developer, will deploy a floating product storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel rather than build a platform. That ship, the Petrojarl Knarr, has already been built.
The biggest benefit to Britain from the Rosebank is perhaps the taxes it generates. The profits Equinor makes will vary depending on global energy markets, so the exact amounts are unknown, but it is estimated that Rosebank could generate up to £30 billion for the Treasury over its two to three decades of operation.
However, it exists. , a broader picture that moves the focus away from Rosebank to look at the UK offshore industry as a whole.
The geology of the North Sea is such that most of its oil and gas is contained in hundreds of small reservoirs, rather than the huge ones seen in places like the Middle East. There are currently 280 of these fields in production, each contributing to the UK's total production.
Rosebank Oil Field
These fields are connected by a network of platforms, subsea pipes and ships, all supported by a huge supply chain of hundreds of companies. The UK's offshore industry has effectively created a gigantic, highly integrated energy production machine.
This machine supports around 200,000 jobs and also supplies the UK with around 35% of its gas. Its oil production meets approximately 75% of the UK's needs.
Most of the oil can be processed in European refineries, but this means British oil supports the energy security of the whole of Northern Europe, including the UK.
The problem is that smaller volumes of oil and gas fields tend to run out in just some years. If they are not replaced, the UK's output will fall and its dependence on imports will increase. Between now and 2030, the UK will lose around 180 of its oil and gas fields as a result of this depletion process.
Rosebank can therefore be seen as replacing some of these fields, helping to preserve the infrastructure. is alive and ensures the energy security of Northern Europe.
And Rosebank is not alone. There are many more promising fields like this in UK waters, which collectively hold more than 10 billion barrels of oil.
In a happy coincidence, estimates show that the black gold stored under the North Sea will last us until 2050 year — exactly on the date when we were supposed to reach net zero.
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