Joe Biden, US President, welcomes Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky to the White House in 2022. Photo: Oliver Contreras/Shutterstock
“ My heart goes out to Ukraine or any other country under the control of larger powers, but I think we need to take care of America first.”
This was the verdict of one New Hampshire woman asked about the war in Ukraine in a focus group last month.
Voters were unanimous. In a poll conducted for the Breaking Points podcast, each of eight Republican supporters said that Kyiv's funding is too high.
After 18 months of brutal war with no end in sight to the invasion, Joe Biden faces unprecedented resistance to US support. «Ukraine fatigue» has set in both in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and among voters at large.
Three of the four Republican leaders who will replace him in the White House in next November's elections have vowed to stop end or cut financial support for Ukraine, and Biden's latest request for another $24bn (£19bn) aid package has been delayed by GOP infighting in Congress.
Ukraine supporters in Washington are worried that U.S. contributions will be sharply cut by the end of this year, months before the election, which will hamper Ukrainian forces' plans for a spring offensive.
The spat over more spending on Capitol Hill has also alarmed officials in European NATO countries and Ukraine.
The US is the largest military supplier to Vladimir Zelensky's forces, and the supply of weapons with ever-increasing firepower is central to Ukraine's plan to push back Russian front lines in the north and southeast of the country next year.
It is also growing there is a sense that Washington's allies in Europe will not be able to compensate for any reduction in support or a complete withdrawal of support, and EU officials are wary of any idea that the bloc might intervene.
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The Kremlin has welcomed «war fatigue» in the US and predicted it will lead to «fragmentation of the political establishment» in the coming months.
Vivek Ramaswamy, the Republican presidential candidate, said lawmakers should focus on «ending Russia's growing military alliance with China.» Photo: CJ GUNTHER/Shutterstock
For some Republicans, billions of dollars in federal war spending are difficult to justify during a domestic cost-of-living crisis as Americans experience the same high inflation rates that have plagued the West over the past year.
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Some Republican politicians also said that Continued support for Ukraine will help strengthen the Russia-China alliance, which will lead to conflict between the United States and the superpower bloc, which could pose a threat to national security.
The House Freedom Caucus, a right-wing group of House Republicans, said it would oppose any «blank check» for Kiev, and Vivek Ramaswamy, the GOP presidential candidate, said lawmakers should instead focus on «ending the growing military alliance Russia with China.”
On Thursday, Mr. Ramaswamy said pro-Ukrainian protesters rammed his car at a campaign stop in Iowa, although police said the crash was an accident.
< p>Mr. Biden faces the twin challenges of a Republican-controlled House of Representatives and waning public support for the war.
Recent polls show support for arms exports to Ukraine has fallen from 46 percent to 41 percent over the past five months.
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Although support for the war is lower among Republicans—it fell to 35 percent from 39 percent—the overall shift was largely driven by voters in Biden's own party.
An Ipsos poll released by Reuters on Thursday found that 52 percent of Democrats support arming Ukraine, down nine percentage points from May.
Earlier this week, the US president was forced to make an emotional plea to Congress not to withdraw support Kiev after the US spending package. aimed at avoiding a government shutdown, ruled out additional funds.
Mr. Biden warned that Republican-led efforts to cut funding would result in “unnecessary deaths” for Ukrainians.
He has floated the prospect of using the State Department's grant program to channel additional aid that would not require congressional approval, and plans to carry forward more than $6.2bn (£5bn) in funding lost due to a Pentagon accounting error earlier this year. /p>
But a more substantial support package will require a vote in Congress and the support of a new House speaker, who will be elected next week after Kevin McCarthy is ousted on Tuesday.
Josep Borrell, the EU's foreign affairs chief, said Europe could not replace the US. Photo: PEPE TORRES/Shutterstock
Jim Jordan, one of the two leaders vying to replace Mr. McCarthy, said that «the biggest issue on Americans' minds is not Ukraine,» pointing instead to domestic issues such as crime and illegal migration.
Another contender, Steve Scalise, is the current Republican Party leader and has supported Ukraine aid in the past but may be forced to toughen his stance in the face of a divided party.
Max Bergmann, of the US Center for Strategic and International Studies, said on Friday: “I think there is growing pessimism […] that Ukraine funding cannot get through because any new Republican House speaker will rely on those who strongly opposed to Ukraine. funding.»
In Kiev, there are mixed opinions about how they are threatened by Republican attempts to cut funding.
Some have downplayed the idea, saying the United States is a reliable ally and a mature democracy. which will not sacrifice its own strategic interests on the altar of party politics, no matter how fierce the internal political competition may flare up in the run-up to next year's elections.
Others weren't so sure. “I can say that we are, of course, worried. We are concerned that politicians in the United States are manipulating the facts,” said former Defense Minister Andrei Zagorodnyuk.
Other European leaders have warned that they will not be able to fully replace U.S. support for Ukraine. Josep Borrell, the EU's foreign policy chief, told reporters: «This was certainly not expected and it is certainly not good news, but I hope that this will not be a definite US position.»
Asked whether Europe could fill the gap left by the US, Mr Borrell said: «Of course Europe cannot replace the US.»
The cut in US aid will be felt on the front line «within a few months» of decision — and it will manifest itself in the form of shortages of ammunition, equipment and spare parts, Mr. Zagorodnyuk said.
This may not mean the end of the war, but it will create extremely serious problems.
Ukrainian soldiers fire a howitzer towards Russian troops at a position on the front line. Photo: Reuters
“It looks like aid to Ukraine may end up falling victim to this,” said Matthew Yglesias, an American political scientist, in response to McCarthy's dismissal on Tuesday. “If this leads to Ukraine losing the war, it will be terrible.”
The European Union and its members have pledged almost twice as much as the United States — 131 billion euros versus the US equivalent of 69.48 billion. euro — in the total amount of aid to Ukraine since the beginning of the war, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy's Ukraine Support Program.
If counted in euros, then military aid from EU and non-EU allies, including The UK, Canada, Australia and Norway also exceed those promised by the USA.
But the US military contribution in January amounted to 42.1 billion euros. 2022 and July 2023 still account for almost half of the total in financial terms.
His reserves are larger than anyone else's, other allies lack his massive industrial capacity, and some items he provides, it is simply impossible to find anywhere else.< /p>Repelling Russian counterattacks
American-supplied cluster munitions, which most other Western allies cannot supply because they have signed a convention banning their use and disposed of their own stockpiles, have proven crucial in defeating Russian counterattacks.
Army Tactical Range Precision Missile Systems (ATACM), which Ukraine has requested but which the United States has not yet delivered, will also not be discussed.
ATACM flies much faster than the British Storm Shadow and can therefore hit targets with an added element of surprise.
Even as the European Union tried to fill the void left by the United States, Mr Borrell's remarks at the Granada summit were a clear attempt to downplay any hope that Brussels could replace Washington.
Some European states, including Germany has said it will only act «in lockstep» with the United States, which could mean that cuts in American arms supplies will have a knock-on effect in other countries.
The ongoing furore over German weapons has been generated by Taurus missiles, which Chancellor Olaf Scholz's refusal to send to Ukraine, fearing it would be too serious an escalation, also hints at new problems in terms of European support.
Meanwhile, officials in Kiev can only wait nervously to see how future domestic crises in Washington could decide their own fate in the battle for survival against Putin.
They previously feared Donald Trump's re-election would signal a step forward in Washington's approach, but it now appears that future funding may be under pressure threat regardless of the winner of next year's elections.
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