McLaren's Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris celebrate back-to-back podium finishes in Qatar. Photo: Clive Rose/Getty Images)
There is no doubt that McLaren's progress in 2023 has been phenomenal. In Qatar they took their second consecutive double podium after winning and another double podium in the sprint race.
They started the season at the bottom of the field with just 14 points after five races. Since July's Austrian Grand Prix they have 190 points to Red Bull's 280 — no other team has topped 150. Oscar Piastri finished just five seconds behind winner Max Verstappen in Sunday's race.
Next year could be a big year for McLaren. They are now without a doubt the most likely team to challenge Red Bull in 2024. In fact, it would not be an exaggeration to say that they will be able to do this even in one of the five remaining rounds in 2023.
The biggest challenge facing any team when it comes to accelerating a car is proving to itself that its development path is the right one. McLaren has done this more than any other team in 2023, and this confidence fuels the motivation and determination that are so needed during the winter months.
In some ways they did it even better than Red Bull, although the champions started the year in a dominant position, so for them it was more a case of dotting their A's and T's. In some ways, the competitive order in Formula 1 is like a ladder. Red Bull are at the top so they have fewer steps to climb before they get to the roof, whereas McLaren — especially at the start of 2023 — had plenty of room to scale. McLaren is now a step or two behind Red Bull, but that last step is always the hardest. There is a good chance that they can still improve.
Oscar Piastri wins Saturday's sprint. Photo: Getty Images/Clive Rose
Of course, it will be difficult to challenge Red Bull every week in 2024, given everything we know and have seen from Verstappen and the team over the last year or so. What McLaren needs to improve over Red Bull is the way they use their tyres. The smaller gap in Qatar (Lando Norris finished almost 20 seconds behind in Japan) was due in part, but not all, to the unusual conditions and the mandatory maximum stint length due to concerns about tire failure, which meant that tire degradation actually didn't get to the end. result. However, McLaren is definitely a team that can contribute to Red Bull next year and has several reasons to be optimistic.
Firstly, the restrictions on Formula 1 aerodynamic testing work in their conditions. service. In this system, each team already has a certain amount of wind tunnel and aerodynamics time that they can use each season on a sliding scale, depending on the results of previous championships. It is reset and recalculated every six months, so the leading team at the end of each season and the end of June each year receives the least amount of wind tunnel time over the next six months.
For example, the 2022 winners (Red Bull) were allowed – before a cost cap penalty was applied – 28 wind tunnel runs per week from July until the end of December this year. The team that finished 10th last year (AlfaTauri) receives 46 points per week. McLaren enter 2024 in an ideal position as they were sixth in the standings at the end of June and are likely to finish the year fourth overall despite being the second fastest team at the track at the moment. This gives them a significant advantage over rivals ahead and behind.
Wind tunnel time is something you are always better off having than not having. However, Red Bull currently receives the smallest allocation and has proven that it can do aerodynamic research more «blindly», if you like, than other teams.
Red Bull started the season with a very good package, so this year they have focused more on optimizing what they have. This is usually easier to achieve even with limited time in the wind tunnel if you know you are on the right track. It's very difficult to find that big step in a wind tunnel, even if you have more time. We've seen this time and time again with Mercedes. Translating wind tunnel results into real lap times is difficult, and each new part is more of a gamble.
McLaren had to dig deeper at the start of the year, but they are now in the same position as Red Bull. Development is not just about how much time you have in the wind tunnel, but also how effectively you use it. McLaren have a double whammy here: they have more time to develop aerodynamics and can use it effectively. They should reap the benefits of all their little developments, strengthening their position and perhaps even taking advantage of Red Bull.
Of course, Red Bull is unlikely to stand still. You see Adrian Newey walking up and down the grid, looking at the other cars. He's not intimidated by seeing other teams solve small problems and then use that to help him piece together the Red Bull puzzle, adapting it to his own philosophy. Red Bull has some scope to find lap times by 2024.
However, one area where Red Bull may be vulnerable is the discrepancy between Verstappen and Sergio Perez. Perez started the year challenging Verstappen but lost so badly that after Austria he scored fewer points than Norris, Piastri and Lewis Hamilton — and only a few more than Ferrari.
That almost makes the Reds. Name a team with one car, even if they won the Constructors' Championship in this situation. This gives Red Bull a weakness and perhaps McLaren, with a great driver line-up, can take advantage of this next year.
If things continue on their current path, they will prove to be tough competition for Red Bull next year. I also wouldn't be surprised if Formula 1 newcomer Piastri leads the charge given how he has performed over the last couple of months.
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