Political campaign banners hang on a building in Gorno, Poland Photo: Michal Dyjuk/ap/Michal Dyjuk/ap
Ahead of Poland As a result most important election in decades, the nation's eyes turned to Guru Kalvaria, a small town surrounded by a constellation of 38 tiny villages and bountiful apple orchards.
This township of 12,000 people is famous for reflecting the results of national elections with astonishing accuracy. .
In 2019, the right-wing Law and Justice party won here, gaining 42.89 percent of the vote and 43.59 percent throughout Poland.
But the mood in Gora Kalwaria is shifting towards Eurosceptic populists, a change expected to reverberate across Poland once votes are cast and counted on Saturday.
The vote is the final round in decades. a long-running battle between the de facto leader of the Eurosceptic Law and Justice party, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, and his arch-enemy Donald Tusk, leader of the main opposition Civic Platform party and former president of the European Council.
Law and Justice, criticized abroad for backsliding on the rule of law and crackdown on abortion and LGBT rights, now looks set to fall short of the majority needed to form a third successive government.
Traditional. The Law and Justice Party, with about 38 percent of the vote, was able to draw on rural support to suppress more progressive voters in big cities such as Warsaw.
Mateusz Baj, independent deputy mayor of Mount Kalwaria. , said people here understand that this election is “very important.”
«In the last election, most farmers voted for Law and Justice,» Mr Budge, 48, said. “They now feel disillusioned with the government and lack of support in the midst of the war in Ukraine and the aggressive trading trends of big supermarkets.”
The influence of rural voters is waning
Farmers were also wary of new EU zero-emission rules, which Law and Justice criticized but did not stop, he said. Zbigniew Adamczyk, 68, is a representative of local farmers. He said they were struggling with rising costs and falling prices after losing the once-lucrative Russian apple market following the invasion of Ukraine.
Poland recently took steps to limit the supply of cheap Ukrainian grain that had flooded the local market, but farmers felt that the government is too slow to protect domestic producers.
“Ukrainians also grow apples. Polish farmers need assurances from the government that their produce will be sold at a fair price and that there will be no competition from cheaper but lower quality produce from the east,” he said. “They want prices to be regulated and guaranteed. And this is not what the government promised them.”
The Poles have been among Ukraine's staunchest and most generous supporters, taking in some 1.5 million refugees after Putin's illegal attack.
Many Ukrainians work in the apple orchards of Mount Kalwaria, but here, as in the rest of Poland, attitudes are becoming harsher. “The mood of Poles regarding Ukrainians fleeing to Poland has changed,” Mr. Bai said.
“Many people don’t like the fact that Ukrainians receive the same social benefits as Poles. The Poles want them to work, but no longer receive benefits.»
In March, Law and Justice introduced new rules according to which Ukrainian refugees must pay half the cost of living.
If elected, the Government promised to increase child benefits from 500 zloty per child per month to 800 zloty, which is about £152, but did not promise to deprive Ukrainians of these payments.
However, the Confederation, a far-right party, is popular among of young voters, which was forced to deny its pro-Russian stance, has pledged to do so and is projected to win 10 percent of the vote. This could give the virulently anti-immigrant party, which has a history of anti-Semitism and homophobia, a kingmaker role as a partner in law and justice.
The Civic Platform, which polls around 30 cents, is also expected to fall short of a majority despite narrowing the gap on law and justice.
The former prime minister's chances of returning to power will depend on the results two small pro-European parties, the Left and the Third Way, which could become part of a liberal coalition.
“I think nearly half of the 18- to 35-year-olds in our region could have voted for the Confederacy,” Mr. Budge said, adding that older people tend to be Law and Justice voters and people over 40 , supporting Tusk.
“Young people are tired of this 20-year conflict between Kaczynski, Tusk and the Confederation gives them a new perspective.”
“The battle for the soul of Poland”
For Elzbieta Banasiak, To the 78-year-old chairwoman of the Council of Elderly People of Mount Kalwaria, tomorrow's vote is nothing less than a battle for the soul of Poland.
A Civic Platform voter who has lived in the city for 16 years said: “They are a danger to democracy and it is worse than under communism.”
“If they come to power, they will try to use this victory, to finish off the opposition.»
She added that senior Law and Justice voters fell silent as a sign of how close the election was.
Law and Justice called a referendum on the EU migration plan on the resettlement of refugees through the bloc, which will take place simultaneously with the elections.
The question reads: “Do you support accepting thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa under the forced relocation mechanism imposed by the European bureaucracy?”< /p>
Mateusz Morawiecki, the Prime Minister, also opposed the EU plans on zero net emissions and demanded that Polish constitutional law be recognized as superior to European law.
Meanwhile, the European Commission has withheld billions of EU funds due to Polish legislation. erosion of democratic standards within the framework of law and justice.
Poland has strong support for continued EU membership and Mr Tusk offers a chance to improve relations with Brussels.
But Ms Banas warned : “If Law and Justice win, perhaps they will continue trying to push us out of the European Union with the help of Polexit.”
“People my age are divided on who to vote for, but most of them see how Law and Justice is trying to manipulate them,” said Alexandra Bogatek, 34, a social worker, of a campaign dominated by distorted media coverage in favor of «Law and Justice».
The mother of two said she doesn't have a single friend who admits to voting for Law and Justice after the crackdown on abortion rights was a «tragedy» for Polish women.
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Law and justice voters may have gone quiet in Mount Kalwaria, but they remain, especially among older people and in the countryside of this leading city.
Mr Morawiecki, spooked by latest polls public opinion, urged Law and Justice voters to take power and seize the «huge chance» of running a majority government.
But a hung parliament remains a clear possibility.
«I don't think the opposition could win outright and there could be a second election in the spring,” Ms. Bogatek said. “And I am afraid that then Law and Justice will win.”
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