Rishi Sunak could soon face a series of new departures from the Conservative Party. Photo: Simon Dawson/No. 10 Downing Street
New wave Tory MPs are expected to announce they are leaving politics in the new year as weak poll results help persuade more Tories to resign.
Several Tory MPs told The Telegraph that some colleagues have admitted privately that they have decided not to seek re-election and will say so early next year.
Others expect colleagues to discuss resignations with their families at It's Christmas, and the minister predicts that many will conclude: “To hell with this game of toy soldiers.”
Things at Conservative campaign headquarters, which plans the election campaign, and the office of Tory whips are also bracing for a flurry of new departures.
Some Tory MPs are even now privately expecting more of their colleagues to resign than before the 1997 general election, when Tony Blair and New Labor finished in 10th place.
Around 75 Conservative MPs resigned in the run-up to the 1997 vote. 52 Conservative MPs have done so this cycle, with polling day possibly a year away.
The number of Conservative MPs leaving this cycle has already exceeded those at general elections in 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2017 and 2019.
The Telegraph spoke to more than a dozen current and former Tory MPs, government officials and party officials in an attempt to gauge the scale of what could happen.
There is widespread agreement that more Conservatives are expected to announce their departure before the general election, which is due no later than January 2025.
The downplayed figures point to a trend towards shorter parliamentary careers for MPs nowadays and to the potential end of the Tories' 13-year reign in government.
Others say Downing Street's failure to improve its poll numbers, with the Tories still trailing Labor by around 20 percentage points, is a key factor in the bid to leave.
The focus there remains on whether some cabinet ministers with a slim majority may decide to resign rather than face the prospect of being ousted by voters.
Seats held by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt Justice Minister Alex Chalk, Education Minister Gillian Keegan and Culture Minister Lucy Fraser are on the opposition party's target list.
Mr Hunt recently said The Telegraph said he was in the “fight of his life” to keep his seat against the Liberal Democrats, but strongly rejected suggestions he could quit.
It is impossible to predict how many Conservative MPs are preparing to announce their resignation or are seriously considering doing so, as such considerations remain secret.
However, some Tory MPs told The Telegraph they had been personally informed by colleagues that the resignation announcement would be made in the new year.
One former Tory cabinet minister said in recent weeks that four Tory MPs in privately admitted that they were leaving politics, with statements likely early next year.
“You [will] get a lot more just after Christmas,” the source said, adding that the winter break gives each MP “time to think about it, talk to their family.”
The Conservative MP said: “I I know that many people are thinking about backing down and declaring that in the new year, if they come to this conclusion… They are very unhappy with the state of things and want to reflect on it. Christmas.”
Other Conservative MPs said they were not personally aware of the upcoming announcements, but many said they would not be surprised if this were the case.
There are two distinct camps in this area, according to one former Tory whip: those MPs who have already decided to leave, and those who are considering whether to stand again but who don't have time to decide.
The source said: “A number of colleagues have already made a decision and are waiting for the new year to announce it. There are still some who are truly undecided. They're probably waiting until Christmas to assess where they are.”
There are two factors, the source added. One is the recent cabinet reshuffle: Conservative MPs are now more confident that they will not return to government before the next election.
The second is opinion polls. The latest polling average puts Labor on 44 per cent of the vote and the Tories on 25 per cent. If this result had been achieved in a general election, Labor would have won a large overall majority in the House of Commons.
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