Russians are demonstrating abnormal demand for dollars and euros. As the Central Bank reports in its review of financial market risks, exporters in November brought foreign currency sales to almost the maximum: they gave 91% of their proceeds to the market. This allowed the ruble to strengthen by 4% for the month. The effect could have been greater, but the population rushed to buy cheaper dollars and euros. Over the month, individuals purchased currencies worth 160 billion rubles, which is 40 billion rubles. more than a month earlier. The Central Bank calls this behavior countercyclical. The majority of transactions took place on the stock exchange, with the overwhelming volume of purchases coming from toxic currencies, the regulator notes.
How can this be explained? And what will happen to the ruble exchange rate next? Mikhail Korolyuk, head of the trust management department of the investment company Solid, considers the demand from the population abnormal: “In fact, speculators bet that the depreciation is temporary. Now holding cash on the exchange is quite alarming, because the Moscow Exchange could fall under sanctions at any time. And then it is completely unclear what will happen to the assets.
At the same time, for me, buying currency is not a very clear strategy. Roughly speaking, people who buy the dollar do not believe that the exchange rate will be maintained. But if I came up with the idea of speculating on the dollar, I would buy futures.
In addition, the question of the future fate of this currency is very interesting, whether it remained on the Moscow Exchange or was withdrawn somewhere. This could also be a request for funds to carry out some trading operations. Such a move is possible.”
At the same time, according to the Central Bank, in November the volume of trading on the exchange was 14% less than in October. Against this background, the Russian currency began to weaken: last week the dollar was worth 88 rubles, and this week it surpassed the mark of 93. The reason was Russia’s decision to reduce oil supplies to the world market in order to reduce the influx of foreign currency into the country.
However, no serious shocks are expected for quotes until the end of the year, noted economist Sergei Khestanov: “Currently, the ruble is in the range of 90-100 per dollar. Until it goes beyond these boundaries, there is no need to talk about any serious trends in the foreign exchange market. If the current situation continues, there are no special reasons for a significant weakening of the ruble.
As for the situation on the oil market, this is, naturally, a factor that, other things being equal, contributes to the weakening of the national currency. But, given the not too much time left until the end of the year, it can influence, rather, psychologically. There is a certain lag between physical delivery and payment.
If we talk about a possible increase in the key rate of the Central Bank, then this is a factor in the strengthening of the ruble. But most likely it will be quite moderate. Therefore, the impact is unlikely to be radical.”
The Central Bank, however, explained the December weakening of the ruble by the end of the tax period and steady purchases of foreign currency to pay for imports. It still occurs mainly in toxic currencies. The share of the yuan in exports even dropped to 33%. Thus, the Chinese currency was inferior even to the ruble, which was used to pay for 40% of all transactions.
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