Rishi Sunak hopes to direct fire at Labor over immigration, but his Tory colleagues will undermine attacks by claiming his plan won't work . Photo: JESSICA TAYLOR/BRITISH PARLIAMENT
In politics, as in sport, a win is a win.
Rishi Sunak avoided what would have been the hellish consequences of Wednesday night's crucial vote if his Bill Rwanda was rejected. on third reading.
This would throw into confusion his master illegal immigration plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda, with no clear path to finally start flying.
This would be a blow to his authority as prime minister, as enough Tory rebels would ignore his calls to «stick to the plan» and instead tear him to pieces.
And this would inevitably lead to escalation. In an election year, the Conservatives are still trailing Labor by a large margin (20 percentage points).
None of this has happened. So Downing Street will breathe a sigh of relief and open up the traffic jams.
Despite all the right-wing hoopla and hype, the «emergency» bill was eventually passed by the House of Commons without a single change from the draft originally introduced back in December.
But removing this obstacle does help. That doesn't mean it's now a straight shot for Mr Sunak when it comes to flights to Rwanda, an important part of his much-publicized pledge to «stop the boats carrying migrants across the English Channel.»
Firstly, the Parliamentary battle is not over. It's the turn of the House of Lords to take up the pencil and eraser for text.
In the second chamber, the dynamics observed in the House of Commons are reversed. The Tories do not have an absolute majority, and those who seek to water down the bill have the advantage.
Protesters against the Government's Rwanda bill ahead of the decisive voting in parliament Photo: TOLGA AKMEN/SHUTTERSTOCK
Opposition parties have already signaled their willingness to challenge the law's claim that Rwanda is a safe country, which critics liken to the saying «black is white.»
Colleagues can also influence the timing, prolonging long debates and lengthy amendments while the Prime Minister's team demands speedy approval.
The fact that Rwanda's deportation policy is not was included in the 2019 Tory election. The manifesto is a complicating factor, meaning that the so-called «Salisbury Convention», which protects such commitments from review by the Lords, does not apply.
However, it is unlikely that the Lords will block the legislation entirely. And since any amendments must be approved by the House of Commons, where Tory rebels want a tougher rather than softer bill, major changes are ultimately not expected.
Next, and perhaps more problematic, is the real world. reality. Once the bill becomes law, any assurances from Downing Street (for example that the wording is tough enough to stop almost all individual deportation attempts) will come under scrutiny.
It's litigation season once the Home Office will begin organizing a deportation flight to Rwanda, which Number 10 wants to fly in the spring.
If individual appeals clog up the courts for weeks or months, delaying the flights' start date will increase criticism of the legislation from Tory rebels.
< p>Another major test could well occur if the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg decides to intervene and block the flights. with a temporary injunction, fearing it violated their convention.
These so-called Rule 39 orders, dubbed «pajama bans» by critics, have been widely discussed in recent weeks. This is how the first flight to Rwanda in June 2022 was cancelled. The rebels wanted the bill to include a promise that such a demand would be ignored.
Mr Sunak, under pressure from the right in his party, said bluntly this week that he would consider ignoring such a ban. But will he really ignore the request?
Leaked internal legal advice reveals that Victoria Prentice, his current attorney general, believes this would breach the UK's obligations under the European Convention on Human Rights.
So will Mr Sunak make good on his threat to ignore “foreign judges”? ? Or blink if it means doing something he has so far stubbornly refused to do, potentially contrary to international law?
UK border A ship carrying migrants detained in the English Channel returns to Dover pier. Photo: BEN STANSALL/AFP
Combined with all this is an uncomfortable dynamic. Some of the most prominent Tories advocating a tougher approach to illegal immigration are now outside the tent.
Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick, the couple who spearheaded Mr Sunak's Rwanda plan just over two months ago, have now become vocal. and harsh critics of his approach.
This week Lee Anderson, the former Conservative deputy chairman seen by party strategists as a «secret weapon» in his election campaign, did the same, quitting in protest of Sunak's bill . .
They are not alone. In the coming weeks, as the Prime Minister looks to criticize Labor over immigration, his Tory colleagues will counter the attacks by arguing that his own plan will not work.
Finally, add leadership dynamics to the mix. Those like Ms Braverman who hope to one day lead the Conservatives know the fight to replace Mr Sunak could begin by Christmas if the autumn election is lost.
That gives critics hoping to inherit the crown The Tories are given the opportunity to be encouraged to continue speaking out on migration and the need for a tougher approach as they fight for position and appeal to party members who will choose the next leader.
All this means, even despite Wednesday night's victory for the Dark Ones clouds still hang low over the prime minister's Rwandan deportation plan.
In the end, some victories turn out to be Pyrrhic. If his new law gets bogged down in the courts and flights to Rwanda are delayed, expect his Tory critics to gleefully proclaim “I told you so” and ramp up conspiracy about what comes next.
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